Friday, May 30, 2008

April 2008 CMHC Data

CMHC released their monthly Housing Now publication for the Vancouver / Abbotsford areas this morning and here is the data for the Vancouver Census Metro Area.

Starts: 1560
Completions: 2328
Under Construction: 26253 (21910 Condos, 3737 Freehold, 606 Rental)
Completed and not Absorbed: 1445 (up 23% from last April)

I expect we'll see a couple months this year where completions are in the 3000 to 4000 range. This will reduce the number of units under construction and reduce the number of people employed in these residential construction projects. The completions will free up labour and hasten the completion of the remaining projects and these expected completions combined with the wrap up of several billion dollars worth of infrastructure projects will likely push the BC economy into recession by early 2009.

Unprecendented isn't even the right word to describe the current number of units under construction. Bubblicious - perhaps.

The majority of the BC economy is a farce. We have an economy that is built on ever increasing home values, condo speculation, rampant consumption, and the psychology of prosperity without the actual prosperity. Aside from a couple of bright spots like our agriculture, natural gas and mining sectors the BC economy is a house of cards. When the economic winds get blowing like they are now, our house of cards will fall.


M- said...

When the trends all start to reverse, as they must, it will blow a lot of people away.

jesse said...

Are "completed not absorbed" included in FVREB/GVREB inventory data?

mohican said...

jesse - some are and some aren't

Some developers have realtors list the units on mls and some choose to market directly.

patriotz said...

BC "needs to look to Europe for convention business".

BC needs to look to Europe for convention business

The man overseeing Vancouver's new convention centre says British Columbia needs to be looking to Europe to drum up convention business.

The industry is highly competitive and it's no longer enough to rely on customers from the U.S., said Warren Buckley, president of PavCo, the Crown Corporation responsible for the $883-million expansion project.

Yep, Vancouver's high dollar, homeless, and 8 months of rain are just what conventioners from the other side of the world are looking for.

Strataman said...

"Yep, Vancouver's high dollar, homeless, and 8 months of rain are just what conventioners from the other side of the world are looking for" Well duhhh!! Want to scare the crap out of your staff? Say were thinking of opening a branch here and you're in charge! Homeless? Tell them they used to work for your company till you transfered them to Vancouver! Think that convention center will fill a really important "niche" market!

M- said...

Jesse: I'm curious how this month's month-end data will fit with your HOH model from your post a couple weeks ago. I hope you'll provide an update post with the new data, once the real estate boards make it available. Thanks!

jesse said...

"Yep, Vancouver's high dollar, homeless, and 8 months of rain are just what conventioners from the other side of the world are looking for."

Add to that 11 hour flights the 9 hour time change, all with surging fuel surcharges. Good luck with that, though.

Aaron said...


I occasionally skim through Mish's Bog and stumbled on this dandy post with some great Canadian content.

Here is the the hook...

US and Canada Demographic Time Bomb

The charts show the ratio of workers to non-workers will peak within the next 4 years or so in both the US and Canada. Workers vs. pensioners in the US is peaking now. Workers vs. pensioners in Canada has already peaked.

Fewer workers, making less money than their parents will be supporting both social security and more importantly medical expenses (Medicare) for retirees. Retirees who think home prices will keep financing retirement, need to start thinking again.

Home prices are falling and will likely continue to fall for another four years or so.

patriotz said...

Good data from Mish, but do note the following:

1. CPP was fixed for demographics a decade ago.
2. Everyone in Canada is already on Medicare, so you don't get the kind of shift in government medical costs the US sees when people turn 65.
3. Canada's health care system is way more cost-effective than that of the US (actually every country's is).

Warren said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Warren said...

Our old/current convention centre was already overbooked and losing business because it wasn't big enough. I'm sure the new one will get plenty of business. Although it will take longer to pay back since it ending up costing double.

It should have been a P3 project. Somehow nobody seems to complain that the Canada line is a P3 since its on time and budget.

patriotz said...

And why do you think it wasn't built as a P3? Because the government didn't want one? No, it's because there's so much downside risk on it that no private operator would take it on without a contract that was so gold-plated that it would be too much of an embarrassment even for Gordo and company.

Oh BTW re the Canada Line, GVRD property taxpayers are taking the risk if the ridership does not meet projections, not the P3 operator. Stay tuned.

Warren said...

Uh-huh, keep it up with the fear mongering.