Wednesday, August 03, 2016

REBGV Sales Update Through July 2016

REBGV released data for July 2016. Inventory is starting to creep up from unprecedented lows

This is mostly due to a marked drop in sales, which are now trending about average compared to the last decade. A surprisingly not-well-discussed way of increasing supply is to reduce sales (i.e. demand).

Months of inventory is, due to the drop in sales, up sharply from the low in the spring. Still low, but a few more months of average sales will bring MOI back into historical territory. If historical territory for MOI is retaken, we can expect price changes to moderate. MOI would continue to move up with lower sales rates because more properties stay on the market for longer, and begin to accumulate.

New listings are trending as they have historically.

As I have mentioned in previous posts, a return to normal levels of MOI is necessary for the market to retract from two years of significant price gains. We may be experiencing the beginnings of this process. Blame what or who you like, but from my analysis, the only thing we can say for certain about causes for a real estate market correction (or, if you prefer, "soft landing") is their proximity to the observer. It would have to be something. Not that the market is soft-landing-ing. I never said that.