Monday, July 08, 2019

REBGV Sales Update Through June 2019

REBGV released their stats package through June 2019. Here are the numbers:

Below are price vs months-of-inventory graphs, alternate depictions of 6 month change in prices versus months of inventory, showing that the most recent dip was the worst since the 2008 recession. Market prices are cyclical so as the spring selling season comes to a close we should expect some (relative) strength and this shows up as months of inventory abating as sales pick up and inventory levels are a bit lower, but note that midway through the year we are still negative. The spring selling season was the worst since the 1990s.

The spring selling season is now over. There has been no significant rebound in sales through the spring and the market remains tepid at best. Inventory is very low and Realtor Kevin Skipworth has commented to me that the actual for-sale inventory numbers may be a bit lower than appears due to a higher rate of allotments for redevelopment (where multiple houses are sold together and combined to build higher-density units, usually on main streets). There is no significant impetus to list properties for sale that accompanies true market distress. In general, though Vancouver is real-estate-heavy, the area is not wholly dependent on real estate and construction for its economy and wage growth appears to be reasonable right now. Unemployment rates are very low. Why would such conditions lead to a significant increase in inventory?

It is looking that prices will continue to be weak through the remainder of 2019 and this will in real terms lead to lower prices for a while longer. And, yes, supply is coming.