The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver has not released the stats package for May yet but courtesy of Paul B we have much of the data beforehand. Aside from the important price data we can look at sales and inventory to see where the trends may be. As soon as the stats package is released we will look at it in more detail.
Sales were 29% off last year. This is the drop off in sales that I was looking for in order to conclude that 2008 would be the year our correction starts. Indeed it looks like it is happening and future months will allow us to be even more conclusive or not.
One of these things is not like the other! Active Listings have shot up dramatically after a slow start to the year. The active listings are rising due to increased listing activity and a slowdown in buying activity.
One of the more conclusive elements of the data is the non-typical rise in Months of Inventory during May.
More on prices to come later.
The model that jesse and I worked on earlier in the month to correlate inventory with price changes would suggest a monthly price decline of -4% +/- 2% approximately. I am not too confident in the model because we just don't have enough data to be terribly accurate yet but it gives us a 'best guess' and that is better than nothing.