Wednesday, April 04, 2018

REBGV Sales Update Through March 2018

REBGV released their stats package through March 2018. Here are the numbers:

Sales are markedly weaker than last year, led by a significant drop in detached sales. Attached and apartment (i.e. condo) sales are still alright, but not as robust as last year (which was a very good year for sales, so we shouldn't lose that perspective!)

New listings are very weak, which I have surmised is in large part due the lack of listings; nonetheless, in combination with weak sales, inventory is starting to accumulate and this will in general lead to less strong prices. From all that I see, there is no crash, but the crazy pace of sales of detached a couple of years ago is starting to show now, and we are now undershooting after the overshoot. But that took a couple of years -- it gives us some indication of how long housing cycles take to complete.

I see no reason to expect a sudden change in sentiment over the spring, but who knows for sure. Detached, and now attached and apartments, have all undergone serious runups since 2015. One wonders if that runup will turn out to be sustainable. This humble student of the market is keeping an open mind either way.