Tuesday, May 05, 2009

Fraser Valley Real Estate - April 2009

The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board released the monthly statistics package and here are the highlights.

Sales were 1,293 and are at quite low levels compared to recent years.

Active listings have not grown as much as last year for some reason. I expect this may change as job losses mount and sales slow down.

Months of inventory has fallen dramatically but remains at a high level of 7.6 and April or May are traditionally the lowest month for MOI. This bodes ill for those expecting price increases in the remainder of 2009.

Prices and MOI are very tightly linked and this relationship remains resilient.

Prices are down over 11% from peak and appear to be taking a brief breather from the downward slide.

The summer months will be critical in the local real estate market and I will watch the number of listings with great interest.


first_time_buyer said...

"Active listings have not grown as much as last year for some reason."

The reason is obvious. Most here feel that the price drop is a temporary blip and is going to change soon. Besides, once those severances start drying up with unstoppable mortgage payments coupled with negative savings, many would be forced to sell. Its then you would start seeing inventory skyrocketing. New listings are pretty much lowest since this boom started. This is going to change sooner than later. The sales are not strong enough to consume the inventory. So get ready for a very very high MOI.

jesse said...

Low listings indicate, quite obviously, that fewer people are wanting to sell. This means, for investors, they will try to rent out their units. For owner-occupiers, they will stay put.

By rent or by sale, death by slow poison or beheading. Either way.

van_coffee said...

Mohican -
Thanks so much for keeping this up.

We all recognize how much work this is, and I just wanted to reiterate this.

Thank goodness you are not a quitter like Gavin over at North Van Condos.


mightymouse said...

I’d like to echo Van Coffee. Thank you for all your efforts Mohican.

Anecdotally, I have a friend who works for the government. She was transferred a couple months ago to the EI department. She said that they were ‘shocked’ not only by the number of new applicants but also by the type of applicants that were making claims ‘white collar workers who have never been unemployed’.

JimTan said...

Canada gains an unexpected 35,900 jobs in April including 17,000 in B.C.
Financial Post
May 8, 2009

The Canadian economy saw an unexpected increase in jobs during April, despite a deepening economic recession, leaving the unemployment rate at eight per cent [States 8.9%].

Statistics Canada said 35,900 positions were added during the month, driven by an increase in self-employment.

The biggest employment gains were in Quebec, up 22,000, and British Columbia, up 17,000.

Carennedy said...

We have to remember that unemployment rates are a lagging economic indicator and signal the bottom.

patriotz said...

Well no, unemployment can keep rising well after the end of a recession. BC unemployment in the 80's didn't peak until 1987 at 14.1% (!).

It's funny that some people call the 90's the "lost decade" when the 80's were so much worse.

And the factors driving economic recovery in BC in the late 80's - strong US consumer and housing recovery, Asian capital inflows - aren't going to be around this time.

If you want to see a real "lost decade", just watch and wait.

Davieharely said...

Some haven’t seen a new post in a few months. And with the latest blog coming on line, and it being on my main real estate site, it will take up a lot of my time. Here are two of my latest posts from that blog..replica rolex submariner

Ice said...

Oh Jimmy Tan,

Do you not realize what self-employed means? LOL Terminated and now a "Consultant" until my UI runs out.

"Statistics Canada said 35,900 positions were added during the month, driven by an increase in self-employment.

The biggest employment gains were in Quebec, up 22,000, and British Columbia, up 17,000."

Ice said...

71% BCers think it’s a good time to buy a home: poll


Consumer Psychology - Optimism is driving this near term surge. Unfortunately fundamentals cannot overcome human animal spirits to own RE at all cost until job loss and forclosures accelerates.

Government spending and low interest rates to stem deflationary pressures will prop up prices and sales for quite some time.

What the average layman doesn't understand is that there is a price to pay in the future in the form of higher taxes to fund deficits and potentially higher inflation/interest rates due to growing industrial and consumer demand on tight inventory.

GDP and real wages stagnating for a long time as the toxic assets (derivatives - shadow banking) held on the balance sheets of corporations have not been removed and will continue to undermine confidence and the flow of money.

david said...

Hey Jim, unemployment isnt the best indicator of the economy. How many people lost jobs paying $25 an hour and got new jobs paying $12 an hour? If there was a stat saying what the average wage is, i would be willing to bet that it went down this month. It even says that there was a jump in self employment. This could mean a bunch of people are cleaning their friends houses or (like ice said) being consultants for the company they were working for. This basically means they have the same job but it is now far less secure.