Monday, March 05, 2007

Greater Vancouver House Prices

I finally got a copy of the REBGV February stats release and here are some updated charts based on some of the historical data I have (I am still waiting to get my hands on VHB's googlepages data). It seems that after four months of price declines we are suddenly back at all time highs. Record low affordability and higher prices across the board.

The price compression phenomenon is still in full swing.

Benchmark prices for February 2007 across Greater Vancouver are:

Detached: $666,983 YOY +11.4%
Attached: $419,061 YOY +15.1%
Apartment: $335,024 YOY +15.3%

Average transaction prices:

Detached: $743,222
Attached: $462,184
Apartment: $367,596

Completely ridiculous is all I have to say.


Cecil said...

According to the benchmark stats, three years ago $400K would buy a typical SFH in East Van, Coquitlam, Delta or anywhere east or south of these areas (which is pretty much most of the GVRD). Five years ago that would buy something in North Van.

Now that same amount barely gets a SFH in Maple Ridge on the far fringes of the GVRD. Even with 25% down, this is a monthly payment of about $2500!

This market is beyond insane and I can't see how it *won't* get ugly. As each month passes we appear to be pushing the upper limits of affordability. Maybe Vancouver is on its way to becoming the most unaffordable city in the world. It doesn't seem that far-fetched at this point.

investah said...

Came across a post on the Vancouver Cono blog about the sub-prime mortgage sector blowing up today in the US. I tuned into ROBTV to catch the fallout, and sure enough, it sounds like this thing could be big enough to trigger that recession, not to mention increased panic of the housing market.

Can't wait for all the dreamers to tell us that we're OK in our little coner of the world ...we're immune to that's different here.

mohican said...

"Maybe Vancouver is on its way to becoming the most unaffordable city in the world. It doesn't seem that far-fetched at this point."

I actually think that this outcome is fairly likely. At least most unaffordable on the West Coast.

solipsist said...

There is a madness amongst men. Could be HAARP. Could be subliminals flashed on the TV screen. Who TF knows? Hear my silent scream about marketing.

What happens when the meltdown hits (and it's under way in the markets) is more of a concern to me right now than house prices.

We have a mix of rapacious greed and stupidity in our societal mindset. It's nuts all right.

mk-kids said...

A colleague is selling the house he bought near Main street last summer... it was a no subject sale & 6 months later they have found loads of water leakage issues, foundation problems, no sun in the backyard. Of course the propoerty has appreciated in value since last summer so he is happy to cash in & move up.

We were wondering who is fuelling this spring sales rush? Perhaps those who recently bought and are unhappy with what they now find they own...

van-realestate-crash said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
chip said...

When I sold my flat in London a few years ago I was certain the market was near the top. It's risen about 15% since then.

I sold up here in Vancouver a year and a half ago, and we've seen about a 20% appreciation since then.

I know there's a correction around the corner, but that's about all you can say about RE. It will fall when it falls.

rentah said...

correct, chip...
And your sales will look great (good timing) when you're looking back in 5, 10 years time. You only have to get it vaguely right to be on the right side of the moves.

Warren said...

That graph really highlights price compression well. I don't suppose you have an equivilant 'decompression' graph so we can see what we might expect.

I think there is a general belief that attached homes fall further in a crash than detached. This certainly helps explain that, since it seems they also increase more in a bubble (% wise) due to price compression.

Ditto for outlying suburbs.