Wednesday, June 19, 2013

BC Population Growth to Q1 2013

BC Stats released its quarterly population estimates and BC continues sluggish growth through Q1 2013.

Population growth consists of the following bulk components:
  • Natural increase (births - deaths)
  • Net interprovincial migration
  • Net international migration (including permanent and non-permanent residents (NPRs))
So let's look at how recent quarters look in a historical context, here graphed since 1961 to show longer-term trends (there is seasonality so quarters are best compared to each other, also do not integrate these graphs, the total population is periodically adjusted during census counts). 4 quarter rolling averages are additionally shown for the aforementioned components and total population growth.

The most recent Q1-2013 data indicate continued negative net interprovincial migration (1611 net out of the province).

Population growth through first quarter of 2013 is below its peak of late last decade, due in most part to net out-migration to other provinces and below-average net international migration, though in the broader historical context immigration is still high compared to past decades, partially offsetting declining natural increases. Annual growth has dropped 50% since its recent local peak in 2007. This will have a direct and negative impact on provincial housing demand in the coming quarters. Interprovincial out-migration is of continued concern, with more people leaving the province for others than arriving.

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