Monday, June 10, 2013

April 2013 CMHC Data - Vancouver CMA

Here is the chart for housing starts, completions, and under construction for Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) to April 2013 with May 2013 preliminary housing starts:

Below we can see a continued high level of multi-unit construction compared to detached construction. The long-term trend for detached construction has been down.
The last three years have seen an increasing amount of starts and under construction volume, the former of which now looks to have crested. Completions are trending upwards, as expected -- completions typically lag starts, so if starts are trending higher that will likely mean completions will trend higher as well. 12 months of completions are now 30% above the trough in 2011. (The actual trough was in early 2011.) With this increased level of completions, and what looks like either a plateaued or further-increasing level of completions into this year, we can expect increased competition among sellers continuing through 2013, as compared to 2012.

Despite recent resale malaise starts remain healthy -- at least not morbid -- pointing to continued construction activity -- and new supply -- over the coming quarters. Units under construction remain high.

Completed and unabsorbed for single and semi detached dwellings have eclipsed the highs seen during the last recession but are below levels seen in the 1990s.

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