Tuesday, December 02, 2008

REBGV Detached Benchmark House Price Falls 4.2%, FVREB -4.9% in November

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver has released their monthly statistics package and it is in stark contrast to the 4 years ending in April 2008. Sales are insanely low, inventory is a record highs for this time of year and prices are collapsing.
Jesse updated his chart comparing Vancouver to other markets - wow!

And Agent Will said this of the November statistics on Real Estate Talks:

". . . what is not said in that report is that we had the lowest November sales (volume wise) in at least 16 years. Not just by a little but by nearly 50% below the previous lowest November. The question then becomes: If no one is buying (OK, 800+ sales is not no one) then who is? And why?

I'll tell you who is: Cherry pickers. The lowest price properties are getting bought at much lower prices. Weekly stats on my site show that sales price to the original list price is anywhere from 10-15% less. The biggest difference I have seen this past week was a 2.888m house selling for, gasp, 1.8m. That's a good 33% below. Now really is a good time to be making offers that make sense to you (I didn't say buying anything... only buying if the offer works in your favour).

A lot of time will be spent to get these offers through and many will be rejected but you potential buyers out there are now shopping in a market that is absolutely panicked and filled with Sellers acting like a deer in headlights, frozen stiff not moving (prices) at all. They want to move (who wants to get hit?) but are completely stunned by the turnaround. Some will be run over... others, with your
encouragement (offers), will move.

I will be back with charts later. Meanwhile, I have work to do.


jesse said...

I like AgentWill's take as well. I would add that if you try to buy for in this market at stinkbid prices (that IMO will likely be considered "fair" prices in a few years), be prepared for a lot of viewings and rejected offers, and ensure if you use a Realtor s/he is aware of the time and patience required.

mohican said...

Agreed jesse, I think that strategy may actually have a high likelihood of success at this point in time if you are patient.

A no-subject offer at a true 'stink bid' level could end up working if you have a high degree of tolerance for rejection. There are a lot of desparate sellers out there, it will just take a lot of work to find them.

macho slob said...

One glance at jesse's chart tells me that if I absolutely had to buy (for whatever crazy reason) that stink bid better be at least 40% below recent comparable sales cuz when all those re-listings hit the market in the spring, along with all the new completions, and buyers getting squeezed by the recession, a 40% discount could look like peanuts.