Wednesday, August 13, 2008

I'm Bored

Well, I'm not really bored generally speaking since work and life are very busy. I am bored of following our real estate market. It just seems so fatalistic at this stage of the process. We've seen this happen before in a myriad of places at many different times.
  • Inventory rises amidst general exuberance about real estate
  • Sales fall amidst claims of a 'seasonal' slow down
  • Prices stagnate with claims of a rebounding market in the fall/spring/summer whatever
  • Developers slash prices and introduce sales incentives with the general populace in denial
  • Prices fall modestly as some sellers who must sell come to the realization that price matters!
  • Inventory rises further and sales fall even more as the general public becomes aware that real estate does not always go up in value.
  • Prices fall dramatically.
  • Eventually people will avoid real estate investing and discussions like the plague.
The script has been written, auditions are complete, the set is ready, everyone is in place, quiet on the set and 'ACTION!'


Sweet said...

I hear you! One useful purpose left might be to share information on which developer/development is having trouble closing out the project and may be worth lobbing offers at.

jesse said...

LOL! Look at these 2 posts on Rob Chipman's blog:

WoW comment

Rob's response

mohican, you can do waaay better.

Patiently Waiting said...

I see what you mean. But in these very uncertain times, its nice to have something so predictable.

For me, real estate has become a non-issue in my personal life. I still follow it simply as an intellectual curiosity.

I'm on stress leave and figuring out what to do next. But I'm glad I'm a renter as I have a little more freedom at this difficult time.

Van Housing Blogger said...

Hey Mo,

I know exactly what you mean. After studying the Vancouver numbers in past cycles and watching what went on in the US over the past 2 years, you would have to have your head in the sand to not know exactly what is coming. Of course, it seems that we may not be short of ostriches around here . . .

It will be a big trainwreck. And who can keep their eyes off a trainwreck?

Montery said...

Hi Mo,

Like Condohype, it appears the RE bloggers are getting the idea that it's time to say "well, nothing new to see here folks, seeya!"

I would argue differently. Especially for you, Mohican, as your blog is entitled "Financial Planning and Personal Sanity". You can certainly shift gears a little bit and talk more about financial planning as we wait for the trainwreck to kick up a big mess.

I think the last blog entry and previous discussion that generated that blog entry are indicative of people who have a "nest-egg" and would like to have some non-partisan advise on what to do.

You've earned a lot of respect through your blogging, and personally I would certainly listen to what you had to say regarding financial planning!

mohican said...

No need to worry. I'm not planning on shutting down the blog anytime soon. There are plenty of interesting things to talk about and I will continue to keep eyes on the local real estate scene.

And VHB- there is no shortage of ostriches.

casual observer said...

Mohican, I know exactly how you feel. It's almost like watching a re-run on TV. You know how the story line goes, and you know the ending, but still you keep watching.

It's surprising how many people still won't admit that our own RE market is following the same path as the U.S. with about a two year lag.

People know that the market has "turned", but they don't believe we will experience anything close to what the U.S. and the rest of the world is experiencing. They truly believe that things are different here.

kaybertoss said...

I think it’s more impatiens than boredom. I know you are considering buying and are probably feeling like we have to watch a re-run for two or more years before you can logically buy something.

I know because I’m virtually in the same position in life as you. I’m feeling like come on already; let the correction do its thing so I can get on with my life.

Patience my friend.