Tuesday, August 05, 2008

FVREB Sales Plummet, Listings at Record Levels, Prices Falling Like Rocks on the Sea to Sky Highway

The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board released their July 2008 statistics package and here is the info:

Active Listings were 56% higher than July last year at 12,299.
Sales were 35% lower than last July at 1284.
Months of Inventory now sits at 9.6 months to sell through the current inventory at the current sales pace.

House prices have had a long run up with tight supply and exhuberant demand. This situation has now reversed and prices are falling as supply has swelled and demand has been lacklustre so far this year.

It sure looks like we will have Year over Year price decreases in August or September. Annual appreciation of the Fraser Valley House Price Index clocked in at a measly 1.7%.

The correlation between Months of Inventory and price changes is holding up extremely well as the market has changed.

Median Prices in all categories of home fell during July. The Single Family Home median price fell -5.4% from June. The median fell from $527,500 to $499,000.

Well folks that is all she wrote. I am pretty excited that this is finally happening and that some semblance of fundamental value will hopefully be restored in our local real estate market.


VancouverGuy said...

The Fraser Valley is really done for... they will crash faster than anything else, and that will drive down the rest of the market too...

winter said...

I certainly hope it crashes. That way, the development behind my place would not start, and I will still have a green field/forest as my neighbour (totally selfish reason, I know).

solipsist said...

Weeeell, the benchmark for Vancouver seems to be down 2.% YOY, according to what I remember hearing on CBC Radio today.

I feel climactic, or maybe post-climactic. I'm about ready for some sleep.

Making those graphs must have made you dizzy mohican. I am positively vertiginous.

solipsist said...

Gorp! Just did some reading, and that 2.1% is since May - not YOY.

mk-kids said...

okay, now that we are all over our giddiness over the inception of the plumeting of the greater van re market (finally!) i want to ask a question, completely off-topic.

i know there are a lot of smart-with-money guys and girls lurking about here. i've got 25k saved (not a lot i know but some!) and i want some suggestions on what smart saving/ investing things i can do with it. we all know van re is out (haha) - any ideas? gics? high interest account? under my mattress?

appreciate your feedback!

Montery said...

mk-kids -- I am in the same boat as you. Since I'm a unsophisticated investor, I don't trust my ability to make good bets in the stock market.

So I cheat. I figure why should I try to beat the market? I'm going to invest in some index funds ETF's. That way I can invest in the TSX as a whole.

Also, since I'm a wee bit over 40, I'm thinking about my retirement income, so dividend returning stocks are very interesting to me.

Finally, I will for the first time in my life max-out my RRSP contributions this year.

Your options will vary, so perhaps talk to a financial adviser?

solipsist said...

mk - if you figure it out, let me know.

I am in "high"-interest savings (2.something%), GICs suck too. Inflation is eating the capital, and taxes are eating earned interest.

Aw, heck, mebbe I'll just buy a few pre-sales.

macho slob said...

Buying broad based ETF's in a bear market may not be the wisest strategy, especially for unsophisticated investors.
ETF's like XDV, that focus on high divident paying stocks are dominated by bank stocks, and if you're not convinced that the global credit mess has been resolved, that may not be the best choice. A safer bet might be XRE (made up of Canadian REIT's) with a higher yield than XDV, and somewhat safer IMHO.
There is a whole gamut of ETF's out there, devoted to every sector imagineable, so whatever you do, don't put all your eggs in one basket.

As for financial advisers, they're a dime a dozen, and unless you have unshakeable confidence in any particular one, find one that charges by the hour instead of commision.

Why not check with Mohican?