Teranet House Price Index - April 2014

HOME PRICES UP 0.5% IN APRIL In April the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ was up 0.5% from the previous month, following a flat March. Though the gain might appear robust, it must be said that apart from the recession in 2009, the composite index always advanced in April, the average monthly increase having been 0.9%. Last month's advance is indeed the third weakest for April outside a recession since 1999. Though the countrywide composite index rose to an all-time high, only four of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed did the same. Prices were up from the previous month in nine markets. Calgary's 1.5% advance was the third in a row exceeding 1%, taking that market to a new high. Montreal's monthly gain of 0.8% was far from making up the ground lost in March. Prices in Hamilton, Halifax and Ottawa-Gatineau were up 0.7% on the month. The rise in the national capital region ended a run of seven monthly retreats. The rise in Halifax left its index still below the January reading. The monthly gain was 0.6% in Edmonton, 0.5% in Vancouver (the only city whose prices have risen for 12 consecutive months, also to a new high), 0.4% in Winnipeg and 0.3% in Toronto. These last two markets reached new highs although their advances trailed the countrywide average. Two markets were down from the previous month, Quebec City (−0.5%) and Victoria (−1.0%). Teranet – National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ Contact Us For general enquiries: info@housepriceindex.ca For licenses covering all index-linked products, please contact: Simon Côté 514 879-5379 Website www.housepriceindex.ca

Since in April 2013 the monthly rise of the composite index was the smallest on record (+0.2%), the rather modest advance of April 2014 resulted in an acceleration of 12 month home price inflation to 4.9% from 4.6%. However, for the first time since October 2010, prices were down from a year earlier in five of the 11 markets, including all four of those east of Toronto: Halifax (−3.5%), Quebec City (−2.4%) and Montreal and Ottawa-Gatineau (−0.4%). The fifth market with 12-month deflation was Victoria (−0.7%). In striking contrast were 12-month gains of 10.0% in Calgary and 9.0% in Vancouver. Toronto (+5.8%) and Hamilton (+5.3%) also pulled the cross-country average higher. Trailing the average were Edmonton (+4.0%) and Winnipeg (+2.5%). The softness of prices east of Toronto is consistent with the excess supply prevailing in the resale markets of these metropolitan areas. Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ The historical data of the Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ is available at www.housepriceindex.ca. Metropolitan area Index level April % change m/m % change y/y Calgary 179.39 1.5 % 10.0 % Edmonton 174.88 0.6 % 4.0 % Halifax 137.75 0.7 % -3.5 % Hamilton 145.92 0.7 % 5.3 % Montreal 148.37 0.8 % -0.4 % Ottawa 139.49 0.7 % -0.4 % Quebec 172.74 -0.5 % -2.4 % Toronto 155.15 0.3 % 5.8 % Vancouver 180.52 0.5 % 9.0 % Victoria 133.88 -1.0 % -0.7 % Winnipeg 196.00 0.4 % 2.5 % National Composite 6 160.94 0.6 % 5.5 % National Composite 11 161.28 0.5 % 4.9 % The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; a complete description of the method is given atwww.housepriceindex.ca The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in six metropolitan areas: Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver, Montreal and Halifax. The national composite index is the weighted average of the six metropolitan areas. The weights are based on aggregate value of dwellings as retrieved from the 2006 Statistics Canada Census. According to that census1, the aggregate value of occupied dwellings in the metropolitan areas covered by the indices was $1.168 trillion, or 53% of the Canadian aggregate value of $2.207 trillion. All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005. By: Marc Pinsonneault Senior Economist Economics and Strategy Group National Bank of Canada

New housing prices drop most in Western Canada: StatsCan

From CBC News.

Contractors' selling prices for new homes decreased 0.6 per cent between December and January, Statistics Canada reported Wednesday.

The agency said the largest decreases were recorded in cities in Western Canada, and the pace of decrease in January was slightly faster than the 0.1 per cent decline observed the previous month.

Prices declined 2.8 per cent in Edmonton, 2.1 per cent in Calgary, 1.1 per cent in Victoria and 0.7 per cent in Vancouver in that period. Builders in those four cities reported unfavourable market conditions.

Contractors' selling prices for new homes in New Brunswick, however, increased between December and January.

In Saint John, Fredericton and Moncton, new housing prices increased 1.4 per cent from a month earlier.

Statistics Canada said builders in New Brunswick increased their list prices or returned to their list prices, after reporting lower negotiated prices in previous months.

Meanwhile, in St. John's and Saskatoon, prices for new homes increased 0.8 per cent from a month earlier, while in Quebec City prices increased 0.6 per cent.

Statistics Canada said the new housing price index decreased by 0.8 per cent in January compared with the same month in 2008. The drop was the first year-over-year decrease in Canada since January 1997.

Year-over-year declines were recorded on the Prairies, with a 10.4 per cent decrease in Edmonton, a 6.5 per cent decrease in Calgary and a 2.7 per cent decrease in Saskatoon.
In B.C., Victoria reported a year-over year decline of 4.2 per cent, while Vancouver posted a 3.2 per cent decline.

New Home Prices Falling

From the Financial Post:

New home prices fell in November for the second consecutive month-to-month decrease, Statistics Canada said Monday.

The average price on a new house declined 0.3%, the federal agency said, as demand continued to cool across the national real estate market in the fall.

The dip continues the first reverse in home prices in more than a decade, following the 0.4% decline experienced in October.

Yet the results varied from region to region, with some markets still witnessing considerable price increases.

St. John's recorded the largest annualized gain, with the value of a new home up more than 25% from 2007, a clip that narrowly outpaced Regina. The monthly increase in St. John's was 3.4%.
In a sign that Saskatchewan is beginning to feel the bite of a recession it has largely avoided so far, home prices were flat in Regina in November while in Saskatoon prices continued to come down.

New home prices were down 0.5% in Saskatoon "confirming a trend of deceleration in this city," Statscan said. "Builders continued to report difficult market conditions."

The drops continued further west. New home prices in Edmonton recorded a 12-month plunge of 7.9% - largest monthly decline since May 1985. Prices dipped 2.5% in Calgary. On a monthly basis, prices fell 0.3% in Edmonton and 1.1% in Calgary between October and November.

On the West Coast, builders cut new home prices in Vancouver by 1.7% in November, a trend continued in Victoria, Statscan said.

Markets in Eastern Canada, which have shown more stable supply-demand conditions, continued to rise, Statscan said. Compared with November 2007, contractors' selling prices were 4.3% higher in Ottawa and 2.0% higher in Toronto. In Québec, the 12-month growth rate was 5.4%, while in Montréal, prices increased 4.6%, the agency said.

No market east of Saskatchewan experienced a month-to-month decline in new home prices.