BC Population Growth to Q4 2012

BC Stats released its quarterly population estimates and BC continues sluggish growth through Q4 2012.

Population growth consists of the following bulk components:

• Natural increase (births - deaths)
• Net interprovincial migration
• Net international migration (including permanent and non-permanent residents (NPRs))

So let's look at how recent quarters look in a historical context, here graphed since 1961 to show longer-term trends (there is seasonality so quarters are best compared to each other, also do not integrate these graphs, the total population is periodically adjusted during census counts):

The most recent Q4-2012 data indicate continued negative net interprovincial migration (2234 net out of the province). The low international component was in big part due to a large net negative NPR component of -5597

Here is the annual graph:

Population growth through fourth quarter of 2012 is below its peak of late last decade, due in most part to net out-migration to other provinces and below-average net international migration. Annual growth has dropped 50% since its recent local peak in 2007, meaning annual population growth in 2012 was about 38,000 fewer than 2007. This will have a direct and negative impact on housing demand in the coming quarters. Interprovincial out-migration is of continued concern, with more people leaving the province for others than arriving.