More on BC Population Growth Q2 2011

A quick follow-up to a previous post made on BC population growth. No pretty graphs this time, just some numbers and some "analysis":

Population growth

Q1

Net International average 1992-2010: 9905

Net International average 2003-2010: 10858

Net international 2011: 7049

Net pop growth average 1992-2010: 13939 (net population change 1.6% YOY)

Net pop growth average 2003-2010: 14279 (net population change 1.3% YOY)

Net pop growth 2011: 9211 (net population change 1.1% YOY)

Q2

Net International average 1992-2010: 10270

Net International average 2003-2010: 11024

Net international 2011: 9525

Net pop growth average 1992-2010: 16691 (net population change 1.6% YOY)

Net pop growth average 2003-2010: 17135 (net population change 1.3% YOY)

Net pop growth 2011: 12281 (net population change 1.3% YOY)

Q3

Net International average 1992-2010: 11806

Net International average 2003-2010: 13721

Net pop growth average 1992-2010: 20077 (net population change 1.5% YOY)

Net pop growth average 2003-2010: 20725 (net population change 1.3% YOY)

Q4

Net International average 1992-2010: 6218

Net International average 2003-2010: 6524

Net pop growth average 1992-2010: 11222 (net population change 1.5% YOY)

Net pop growth average 2003-2010: 10949 (net population change 1.3% YOY)

Current Q1-2 2011 pace is 70% of the average Q1-2 population growth and 75% of the average Q1-2 net international since 2003. At current trends, there will be 10 000 fewer international immigrants than the average since 2003. There will also be 20 000 fewer net migrants (net international plus net interprovincial) than the average since 2003. That means an immediate demand drop of about 8 000-10 000 dwellings province-wide compared to previous. This is a further deterioration from a drop-off in net migration in 2010 compared to years 2005-2009. Some areas of the province, most notably the Okanagan, are already experiencing slower residential construction activity.

Lower population growth is usually, and logically, coupled with lower residential construction activity. As I highlighted previously, province-wide construction employment contribution still remains above the 15-year average and was the primary sector to take up up the slack from a quickly-deteriorating manufacturing employment base over the last decade. I am concerned that BC's construction workers and commensurate supporting infrastructure will have few places to turn if construction activity wanes.