Saturday, April 17, 2010

Canada's brewing debt storm - - Globe and Mail

For every $1 of disposable income, Canadians owe a record $1.47. How did it come to this?

By Paul Waldie and Steve Ladurantaye

Canadian borrowers are fast approaching a day of reckoning.

Lured by cheap money to buy up, buy in, expand and make over, families have pushed credit levels to a record high.

Now, mortgage rates are beginning to creep up and the Bank of Canada is poised to retreat from the record-low interest rates it adopted to fight the recession and spur recovery.

The end of the free-money era has left consumers more vulnerable than ever, and those who threw caution to the wind could soon face costs they can't handle.

Household debt has surged three time faster than income in recent years and now stands at a record high of more than $1-trillion. Put another way, Canadians owe about $1.47 for every dollar of disposable income. Even more remarkably, they took on more debt during the slump - a first for a recession - because borrowing was so cheap.

With debt levels this high, even a small hike in interest rates will be ugly for those whose incomes aren't rising fast enough to meet their day-to-day expenses.Their woes could have a snowball effect: As debt-strapped consumers pull back, their credit woes spill over into the broader economy and risk putting a damper on the recovery.

For some, the trouble has already begun. John Silver, who runs Community Financial Counselling Services in Winnipeg, has seen his caseload increase 20 per cent from last year. "We re seeing more people coming in with more stress with regard to their debt," he said.

Much of the recent rise in debt in Canada has been due to low interest rates, generally easier credit terms and fierce competition among lenders. Even when the recession hit in late 2008, Canadians remained far more confident than Americans in part because of a better housing market and stronger financial institutions. Consumer confidence in Canada is only about 20 per cent below where it was in 2007 whereas it's 60 per cent lower in the U.S.

The higher confidence level and stronger banks meant Canadians were far more eager to borrow during the recession than Americans, said Benjamin Tal, senior economist at CIBC World Markets."I can offer you a very low mortgage in the United States and you won't take it," he said. "In Canada you jump on it, because confidence is high."

Now though, "what I'm seeing is a consumer that is more sensitive to higher interest rates," he added.

Most of the increased debt, roughly 70 per cent, has been in mortgages, reflecting the still hot housing market in much of the country. That has left many households struggling to meet monthly payments on hefty mortgages and more susceptible to rising rates. Families in Vancouver, for example, spend about 68 per cent of their disposable income on the cost of maintaining their house, compared to less than 40 per cent 10 years ago.

"There's been a real frenzy just to get in [to a house] at all cost, because if you don't get in you may never get in," said Scott Hanah chief executive of the Credit Counselling Society, a non-profit group based in Vancouver that helps people sort out their debts.His organization is fielding about 4,000 calls a month and has seen a 10-per-cent increase this year in the number of people seeking help."Last year we saw an increase in activity of over 50 per cent. So to have a further 10 per cent increase on top of that is significant," he added.

There are many people in the same position as James Laidlaw and his young family, who borrowed to build onto their Toronto home, adding construction costs on to a mortgage to help finance $250,000 in renovations and an expansion of 600 square feet.

Even a jump in mortgage rates of just half a percentage point will mean an extra $1,700 a year for Mr. Laidlaw, his wife and two children."Every dollar counts and I'm already thinking about the other things that may suffer," he said. "Maybe we'll have to lose the vacation, or scale back Christmas.

"Canadians used to be big savers and cautious borrowers. In 1982, Canadians socked away 20 per cent of their disposable income and per capita debt stood at about $5,500, according to Statistics Canada. By contrast, Americans were saving just 7.5 per cent of their disposable income at that time and borrowed $6,500 per capita.

Savings and borrowing soon went in opposite directions in both countries and by 2002 debt levels surpassed disposable income for the first time. In 2005, the savings rate in Canada fell to 1.2 per cent, about the same as in the U.S. Meanwhile, per capital borrowing jumped to $28,390 in Canada and $48,700 in the U.S.Consumers are feeling the pinch. A survey last year by the Certified General Accountants Association of Canada showed 21 per cent of respondents could barely meet the interest payments on their loans. The group is about to release a similar survey this year and, said the group's chief executive Anthony Ariganello, the level of those struggling to cope has climbed to about 23 per cent.

"We may be back into a recession [next year] because, remember, part of what has helped us get out of this recession was spending and consumer spending at that, and if people don't have money to spend we could be rapidly back in to where we started," he added.And while consumer spending and confidence have increased recently, both may be short lived, said CIBC's Mr. Tal.

"There is a gap between confidence and ability," he said. "It's a gap between what's in your head and what's in your pocket. And this gap is, of course, a matter of concern because consumer confidence is high due to the fact that interest rates have been extremely low and people are able to finance those mortgages and those loans.

"In a recent report, Mr. Tal concluded that "Canadian consumer fundamentals are weaker than they have been in almost 15 years."That's something that concerns officials at the Bank of Canada. If consumers run into trouble with their mortgage payments, that in turn can lead to "wider problems with other consumer loans, such as credit card debt," David Wolf, a Bank of Canada economist, said in a speech in January. "Consumers may also have to curtail other spending to cope with their debt burdens, creating adverse spillovers to the real economy.

"Michael Hammond has already scaled back his plans. The Ottawa resident has a pre-approved mortgage of $220,000 and has been looking for a house. He nearly bought a $214,000 townhouse last week, but backed off because he's still considering the effect of eventual higher rates."I am mulling over mortgage scenarios in my head like crazy right now," he says. "It's a scary time to be looking for a house. I'm looking at three cheaper homes today because I am so worried about overextending myself and getting caught five years from now.

"Neil Bigelow and his partner Tina Boudreau are also running over financial calculations as they prepare to buy their first home. The couple has been planning to buy a piece of land in Halifax and build their own home. But the prospect of rising rates has them worried about how much to borrow.

"Right now I could probably get $200,000 mortgage," said Mr. Bigelow. "But what's going to happen down the road because interest rates are not going to stay where they are at."

By the numbers
68%: Average amount of disposable income households in Vancouver spend on the cost of a home
44%: Average in Toronto
35%: Average in Calgary
36%: Average in Montreal
30%: Average in Ottawa
21%: Percentage of Canadians who say they can't manage their debt load
147%: Debt-to-income ratio in Canada, a record high
157%: Debt-to-income ratio in the United States
70%: Percentage of debt held in mortgages in Canada

Certified General Accountants Association of Canada, CIBC Economics, National Bank economics and Statistics Canada


mohican said...

It doesn't matter what way you spin this data, IT IS NOT GOOD.

There is very little capacity for any further growth in the housing market or the consumption oriented parts of the economy (approx 70% of the economy) as people have borrowed way beyond their capacity to service the debts - especially at higher rates.

jesse said...

Not to explain away any of this analysis but basement suite income in Vancouver would seem to have something to do with a higher ratio.

Anonymous said...


David said...

This is not a very informed article. It is comparing annual income to lifetime debt, which is meaningless as the two amounts of money are measured in different time scales. If you compare debt to income over 10 years rather than to the arbitrary choice of one year, then the debt would be only 13% of income over this period. The more meaningful measure is to look at the fraction of income that is paid to service debt, which has been reduced recently due to the fall in interest rates.

The one major risk is that Canadians only get 5 year mortgages, while in the US you can lock in interest rates for 30 years. That is the big elephant in the room, but the Globe and Mail can't bring itself to talk about this.

patriotz said...

68%: Average amount of disposable income households in Vancouver spend on the cost of a home

What households?

The average amount of disposable income that households in Vancouver spend on shelter is actually about 25-30%. The 68% cited above comes from the hypothetical quotient of two statistical values that have nothing to do with each other, i.e median income (for everyone) and median selling price of houses (a tiny fraction of the dwelling stock).

Call it a pet peeve if you like but it annoys me that such statements that are absurd at face value get passed off as fact.

kopyright_klepto said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
kopyright_klepto said...

Jesse, wouldn't those basement suites show up as part of income for Vancouver residents? (or is there an un-tapped tax base that our government needs to start looking into?)

jesse said...

kk, I don't know for sure but from those I know who rent out suites, none of them are declaring it as income. Usually income sources totaling below $10K or so won't raise the ire of CRA.

patriotz said...

A large number of those renting out suites (virtually all recent purchasers) have a negative income (= rent - expenses). If they're not reporting it they are missing out on a tax break.

I wonder how much net income there really is in aggregate on suite rentals in metro Vancouver.

jesse said...

How long will CRA allow you to operate a rental at a loss before they require a profit?

patriotz said...

Good question. I do know in the comparable situation for stocks (margin interest) they will allow the loss for many years.

An investment is supposed to have a "reasonable" prospect of turning an operating profit at some future point for the interest (and other costs) to be deductible, but I don't think CRA is going to be doing a fundamental analysis of Vancouver RE any time soon. :-)

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