Economist Property Special

An excellent article in a excellent series of articles looking at the perils of property. http://www.economist.com/node/18250385

Vancouver Housing-Related Statistics

This post is intended to summarise data sources that can be used to analyse the metropolitan Vancouver housing market. Many of these data sources can be used for other housing markets too. Unfortunately there is no one good source of data, however the Sauder School of Business has summarised much of the key historical data.

House Prices

Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver House Price Index
jesse's REBGV tracking spreadsheet
Fraser Vally Real Estate Board House Price Index
Teranet National Bank House Price Index
Sauder data

Inventory and Sales

REBGV Press Releases
FVREB Press Releases and statistics
AgentWill's statistics (tracks a sub-area of the Vancouver CMA)
jesse's REBGV tracking spreadsheet

Rental

CMHC reports "Rental Market Reports — Major Centres"
Sauder data

Employment

Statscan labour force survey
BC Stats labour and income
Sauder data

Wages

GVRD city median incomes
City of Vancouver income map (2000)
City of Vancouver local area statistics
BC Stats taxfiler income tables
BC Stats labour and income

Population

BC Stats Migration

BC Stats Population Highlights
BC Stats Population Estimates
GVRD key facts
City of Vancouver statistics

Metro Vancouver housing data book

Housing and Construction

CMHC reports "Monthly Housing Statistics"
GVRD data
City of Vancouver statistics (from Census data)

Immigration

Citizenship and Immigration Canada statistics

Interest and Mortgage Rates

Sauder data
Bank of Canada data
Government of Canada 5 year bond quote

Economic Accounts
BC Stats


Economic Reports

BC Stats economic statistics
RBC Housing Trends and Affordability
TD economic reports

General

CMHC statistics
GVRD key facts
GVRD census bulletins
City of Vancouver statistics
Sauder Centre for Urban Economics and Real Estate data
BC Stats
Statistics Canada

Debt Crunch

Recommend visiting this site: http://www.debtcrunch.ca/

Bifurcation of the BC Real Estate Market

No, bifurcation isn't a an intestinal disorder although it could cause some consternation (not constipation) among some observers who expect uniform behaviour across various real estate markets.

Based on market behaviour since the 'flash crash' of 2008/2009, we could draw a clear line between the urban market of Greater Vancouver and the rest of the province. The City of Vancouver and its immediate suburbs have witnessed a frenetic pace of home buying activity and consequent price rises.

This is in a pretty marked contrast to the real estate markets of the Fraser Valley, Vancouver Island, and the rest of BC. While prices have risen substantially in the area covered by the REBGV this past year, they have fallen or remained relatively flat in many markets including the Fraser Valley, Chilliwack, Okanagan, Northern Interior, etc. thus bifurcation.

Why?

Quite simply, I think it just comes down to supply and demand. The Greater Vancouver real estate market has inelastic supply and demand that is relatively stable. When the market is hot, supply becomes even more constrained as holders of real estate hang on for further gains rather than listing. Demand is increased as potential buyers feel like they are 'getting left behind' and the ratios of supply and demand drive prices higher. This, of course, can work in reverse, which is what we witnessed during the 'flash crash' of 2008/2009 and I expect we will witness a rather severe and perhaps more prolonged version again soon.

What do you think? When might this happen?

Note: The Landcor 2010 Report paints the same picture: https://www.landcor.com/market/reports/2010_Residential_Sales_Summary.pdf

Teranet Index - December 2010

FEBRUARY 2011

Home prices up 0.3% in December Canadian home prices in December were up 0.3% from the previous month, according to the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™. The advance followed three consecutive monthly declines that had ended an unbroken run of 16 increases. December prices were up from the previous month in five of the six metropolitan markets surveyed. A 0.1% rise in the Calgary market was the first gain in five months. The rise was 0.5% in Vancouver and Montreal, 0.2% in Toronto. Halifax prices jumped 3.6%. We note that the composite index would have advanced 0.3% even if Halifax had been flat. The 0.4% monthly decline of Ottawa prices was the fourth in a row. Teranet – National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ Contact Us For general enquiries: info@housepriceindex.ca For licenses covering all index-linked products, please contact: Simon Côté 514 879-5379 Website www.housepriceindex.ca

The 12-month gain in the composite index slowed in December to 4.1%. It was the sixth month in a row of deceleration. Halifax was the only market to show an acceleration of its 12-month rise, to 8.5% in December from 2.7% in November. The 12-month increase was 4.0% in Toronto, 5.1% in Vancouver, 6.3% in Ottawa and 6.4% in Montreal. Calgary prices were down 2.9% from a year earlier, for a third consecutive month of 12-month deflation. Data for January from the Canadian Real Estate Association show generally balanced conditions in major urban markets. Toronto and Vancouver could even be considered rather tight markets. The federal minister of finance announced January 17 that the maximum amortization period for an insured mortgage will be reduced to 30 years from 35 years effective March 18. This prospect could influence the resale market between now and the effective date. Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ The historical data of the Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ is available at www.housepriceindex.ca. Metropolitan area Index level December % change m/m % change y/y Calgary 154.36 0.1 % -2.9 % Halifax 132.56 3.6 % 8.5 % Montreal 136.22 0.5 % 6.4 % Ottawa 130.51 -0.4 % 6.3 % Toronto 124.43 0.2 % 4.0 % Vancouver 156.62 0.5 % 5.1 % National Composite 137.51 0.3 % 4.1 % The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; a complete description of the method is given at www.housepriceindex.ca The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in six metropolitan areas: Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver, Montreal and Halifax. The national composite index is the weighted average of the six metropolitan areas. The weights are based on aggregate value of dwellings as retrieved from the 2006 Statistics Canada Census. According to that census1, the aggregate value of occupied dwellings in the metropolitan areas covered by the indices was $1.168 trillion, or 53% of the Canadian aggregate value of $2.207 trillion. All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005. By: Marc Pinsonneault Senior Economist Economy & Strategy Group National Bank Financial Group Teranet - National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for their special collaboration on this report. 1 Value of Dwelling for the Owner-occupied Non-farm, Non-reserve Private Dwellings of Canada.