It Is Now Lonelier at the Top

In August last year I prophesised that Vancouver would eclipse Sydney as the English-speaking world's least affordable housing market as measured by Demographia by means of the median price to medium income ratio. I had also opined that, if conditions were to deteriorate in Asia, that Vancouver could eclipse Hong Kong. My predictions were as follows:


Hong Kong 11.4
Vancouver 10.5
Sydney 9.4
Melbourne 8.8
Plymouth&Devon 7.4
San Francisco 7.1
London 7.1
Adelaide 7.0
San Jose 6.6
Brisbane 6.5

Well now we get word that Demographia's 2012 survey says:

Hong Kong 12.6
Vancouver 10.4
Sydney 9.2
Melbourne 8.4
Plymouth&Devon 7.4
San Jose 6.9
London 6.9
San Francisco 6.7
Adelaide 6.7

Hong Kong appears to have accelerated its unaffordability rankings alongside Vancouver. Other areas of the world -- the UK, Australia, and the US -- have deteriorated slightly. It is appearing that the sheen has fallen off Australia:

Home prices in the eight capitals of Australia’s states and territories fell 3.7 percent in 2011 through November and were on pace for the biggest annual decline in at least 12 years on concerns that Europe’s debt crisis may damp the nation’s economic growth, according to figures released Dec. 30 by RP Data, a real estate researcher.

Vancouver is in rarefied territory, alongside a territory heavily tied to and invested in the fortunes of Mainland China. On the eve of Chinese New Year we should remember the year that was, and look forward; only one lone city stands between Vancouver and housing supremacy. Perhaps the year of the dragon bodes auspiciously!

It's getting lonely at the top

Harken back to the last report by Demographia on median price to median income ratios of English-Speaking cities (and Hong Kong). A reminder about the ratios of the top 10 cities:

Hong Kong 11.4

Sydney 9.6

Vancouver 9.5

Melbourne 9.0

Plymouth&Devon 7.5

San Francisco 7.2

London 7.2

Adelaide 7.1

San Jose 6.7

Brisbane 6.6

Since then Australia has hit a bit of a snag, the snag being prices aren't going up any more. In Vancouver... well the benchmark is up 13% and incomes are basically flat. So we can extrapolate plausible Demographia data for 2011 assuming no price changes going forward, assuming 2% median wage growth (I kept HK the same due to lack of data):

Hong Kong 11.4

Vancouver 10.5

Sydney 9.4

Melbourne 8.8

Plymouth&Devon 7.4

San Francisco 7.1

London 7.1

Adelaide 7.0

San Jose 6.6

Brisbane 6.5

If Vancouver usurps Hong Kong at the top of the survey that will be something, and it's no longer out of the realm of possibility if wage growth in Hong Kong is high...