Monday, April 22, 2013

Upper Body Work on the Five Year

Here are some graphs on the Canadian five year mortgage rates. The first graph is the "posted" and "average" mortgage rates since around 2000:
The components of the mortgage rate are comprised of future inflation expectations (I used the long real return bond and the long bond to estimate future inflation expectations), the real rate of interest on "risk free" (the five year Government of Canada bond yield subtracting inflation expectations), and the residual which we abstract to be the "spread".
The real rate of interest on the five year GoC bond has been negative for over a year now. For the most part this has materialized as increased spreads to mortgage lenders and securitizations. The negative real rate on the five-year bond has been causing consternation with the government and the Bank of Canada and is a major reason why they have been leaning so heavily on mortgage lending over the past year.

The posted and average mortgage rates have diverged over the past few years:
Finally there is the "renewal gap" that takes rates from five years ago and asks the question, what interest rate differential (IRD) will a borrower see upon renewing a five-year mortgage, all else equal? I have estimated the forward-looking renewal gap by keeping current rates constant out until 2018 (five years from now). If that occurs the renewal gap in five years will be exactly zero.

The five-year renewal gap is heavily negative and will remain so until the end of 2013. This will provide some refinance tailwind for housing activity. That tailwind hits a proverbial brick wall in 2014 even if rates remain low. (Note the absolute magnitude, not just the gap, matters for payments. That is, a renewal gap of -1% pre-2008 and post-2008 will have a different effect on changes in absolute payments.) In terms of setting macroprudential policy, I expect the government is considering upcoming renewal IRDs.

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