Teranet House Price Index December 2012

DECEMBER HOME PRICES UP 3.1% IN 12 MONTHS The Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ rose 3.1% over the 12 months of 2012, the lowest rate in three years. December was the 13th consecutive month of deceleration in 12-month inflation. Within the Canada-wide trend there is considerable variation among the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed. Up through September, the cross-country trend was replicated in the Vancouver market, but in December there were only two markets with continuous runs of deceleration: Toronto (eight months) and Winnipeg (six months). The 12-month gain exceeded the cross-country average in six metropolitan areas: Hamilton (7.4%), Toronto (6.3%), Halifax (5.6%), Quebec City (4.2%), Calgary (4.1%) and Winnipeg (3.9%). It lagged the average in three markets: Montreal (3.0%), Ottawa-Gatineau (2.6%) and Edmonton (1.5%). Prices in Victoria were flat from a year earlier and prices in Vancouver were down 2.0%. Last October, on the basis of the U.S. Case-Shiller index (composite 20 cities), the 12-month change in the price of homes south of the border exceeded the pne in Canada for the first time in six and a half years. Teranet – National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ Contact Us For general enquiries: info@housepriceindex.ca For licenses covering all index-linked products, please contact: Simon Côté  514 879-5379 Website www.housepriceindex.ca

The composite index was down 0.4% from November, the fourth consecutive monthly decline, a first out of a recession, and the fourth December monthly decline in 13 years of data, including December 2008 when the country was in recession. Prices were down from the month before in eight of the 11 markets surveyed. For Montreal (−0.3%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (−0.1%) it was the fourth straight monthly decline. For Halifax (−0.7%), Winnipeg (-0.7%) and Toronto (−0.3%) it was the third. For Edmonton (−0.1%) it was the third in fourth months, for Vancouver (-1.0%) the fifth in six months, for Calgary (−0.9%) the second in three months. Prices were up 1.7% on the month in Quebec City, ending a run of four monthly declines, and 0.9% in Hamilton and Victoria. The monthly gain in Victoria followed four straight months of retreat. Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ The historical data of the Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ is available at www.housepriceindex.ca. Metropolitan area Index level December % change m/m % change y/y Calgary 161.17 -0.9 % 4.1 % Edmonton 166.16 -0.1 % 1.5 % Halifax 139.88 -0.7 % 5.6 % Hamilton 141.01 0.9 % 7.4 % Montreal 148.06 -0.3 % 3.0 % Ottawa 140.57 -0.1 % 2.6 % Quebec 173.11 1.7 % 4.2 % Toronto 146.84 -0.3 % 6.3 % Vancouver 165.89 -1.0 % -2.0 % Victoria 139.51 0.9 % 0.0 % Winnipeg 187.32 -0.7 % 3.9 % National Composite 6 152.35 -0.5 % 3.1 % National Composite 11 153.45 -0.4 % 3.1 % The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; a complete description of the method is given at www.housepriceindex.ca The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in six metropolitan areas: Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver, Montreal and Halifax. The national composite index is the weighted average of the six metropolitan areas. The weights are based on aggregate value of dwellings as retrieved from the 2006 Statistics Canada Census. According to that census1, the aggregate value of occupied dwellings in the metropolitan areas covered by the indices was $1.168 trillion, or 53% of the Canadian aggregate value of $2.207 trillion. All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005. By: Marc Pinsonneault Senior Economist Economy & Strategy Group National Bank of Canada Teranet - National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for their special collaboration on this report. 1 Value of Dwelling for the Owner-occupied Non-farm, Non-reserve Private Dwellings of Canada.