Teranet House Price Index for December 2012

DECEMBER 2012

NOVEMBER HOME PRICES UP 3.3% IN 12 MONTHS The Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ for November was up 3.3% from a year earlier, for a 12th consecutive month of deceleration in 12-month inflation. Up through September this cross-country trend was replicated in the Vancouver market, but this is no longer the case. In Montreal 12-month inflation has decelerated in 11 of the last 12 months, in Toronto in each of the last seven months, in Winnipeg in each of the last five months, in Ottawa-Gatineau in eight of the last 10 months. The 12-month price change continues to vary widely by market. In November the 12-month gain exceeded the national average by a wide margin in five metropolitan areas: Halifax (7.3%), Hamilton (7.2%), Toronto (6.3%), Calgary (5.7%) and Winnipeg (5.2%). It lagged the average in four markets: Montreal (2.8%), Quebec City (2.7%), Ottawa-Gatineau (2.2%) and Edmonton (1.6%). Prices were down from a year earlier in Vancouver (−1.4%) and Victoria (−1.7%). Teranet – National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ Contact Us For general enquiries: info@housepriceindex.ca For licenses covering all index-linked products, please contact: Simon Côté  514 879-5379 Website www.housepriceindex.ca

The composite index was down 0.4% from October. It was the fourth November monthly decline in 13 years of data, including November 2008 when the country was on the verge of recession. For the first time since February 2009, when the recession was in full swing, prices were down from the month before in 10 of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed. For Quebec City (−0.1%) and Victoria (−0.9%) it was the fourth straight monthly decline. For Montreal (−0.4%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (−0.5%) it was the third, for Toronto (-0.3%) and Halifax (−0.9%) the second. Prices were also down in Vancouver (-0.6%), Edmonton (−0.9%), Hamilton (-0.3%) and Winnipeg (-0.7%). Only in Calgary were prices up from the month before (0.4%). The Winnipeg and Hamilton markets nevertheless rate as tight by the criterion of seasonally adjusted new listings to sales as published by the Canadian Real Estate Association. Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ The historical data of the Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ is available at www.housepriceindex.ca. Metropolitan area Index level November % change m/m % change y/y Calgary 162.61 0.4 % 5.7 % Edmonton 166.28 -0.9 % 1.6 % Halifax 140.92 -0.9 % 7.3 % Hamilton 139.75 -0.3 % 7.2 % Montreal 148.45 -0.4 % 2.8 % Ottawa 140.75 -0.5 % 2.2 % Quebec 170.14 -0.1 % 2.7 % Toronto 147.33 -0.3 % 6.3 % Vancouver 167.51 -0.6 % -1.4 % Victoria 138.20 -0.9 % -1.7 % Winnipeg 188.60 -0.7 % 5.2 % National Composite 6 153.17 -0.3 % 3.3 % National Composite 11 154.02 -0.4 % 3.4 % The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; a complete description of the method is given at www.housepriceindex.ca The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in six metropolitan areas: Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver, Montreal and Halifax. The national composite index is the weighted average of the six metropolitan areas. The weights are based on aggregate value of dwellings as retrieved from the 2006 Statistics Canada Census. According to that census1, the aggregate value of occupied dwellings in the metropolitan areas covered by the indices was $1.168 trillion, or 53% of the Canadian aggregate value of $2.207 trillion. All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005. By: Marc Pinsonneault Senior Economist Economy & Strategy Group National Bank Teranet - National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for their special collaboration on this report.