Teranet - November 2012

NOVEMBER 2012

OCTOBER HOME PRICES UP 3.4% FROM A YEAR EARLIER The Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ for October was up 3.4% from a year earlier, for an 11th consecutive month of deceleration in 12-month inflation. Up through September this cross-country trend was replicated in the Vancouver market, but in October this was no longer the case. In Montreal 12-month inflation has decelerated in 10 of the last 11 months, in Toronto in each of the last six months, in Winnipeg in each of the last four months. Twelve-month price changes continue to vary widely. In October the 12-month gain exceeded the national average by a wide margin in four metropolitan areas: Halifax (8.9%), Hamilton (7.2%), Toronto (6.4%) and Winnipeg (5.9%). In Montreal (3.6%) and Calgary (3.5%), it was close to the national average. In Quebec City and Edmonton the 12-month rise was 2.6% and in Ottawa-Gatineau it was 2.5%. Prices were down from a year earlier in Vancouver (−1.0%) and Victoria (−1.7%). Teranet – National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ Contact Us For general enquiries: info@housepriceindex.ca For licenses covering all index-linked products, please contact: Simon Côté  514 879-5379 Website www.housepriceindex.ca

The composite index was down 0.2% from September. It was the third October monthly decline in 13 years of data, including 2008 when the country was on the verge of recession. Prices were down from the month before in seven of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed. For Quebec City (−0.9%) and Victoria (−0.6%) it was a third straight monthly decline. Toronto was also down 0.6% on the month. For Ottawa-Gatineau (−0.4%) and Montreal (−0.3%) it was a second consecutive monthly drop. Prices were also down in Calgary (−0.2%) and Halifax (−0.1%) and flat in Winnipeg, even if the resale markets in these three regions are considered tight. Prices were up 0.1% in Vancouver, 0.3% in Edmonton and 0.4% in Hamilton. Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ The historical data of the Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ is available at www.housepriceindex.ca. Metropolitan area Index level October % change m/m % change y/y Calgary 161.90 -0.2 % 3.5 % Edmonton 167.81 0.3 % 2.6 % Halifax 142.26 -0.1 % 8.9 % Hamilton 140.18 0.4 % 7.2 % Montreal 149.07 -0.3 % 3.6 % Ottawa 141.41 -0.4 % 2.5 % Quebec 170.25 -0.9 % 2.6 % Toronto 147.72 -0.6 % 6.4 % Vancouver 168.46 0.1 % -1.0 % Victoria 139.49 -0.6 % -1.7 % Winnipeg 189.94 0.0 % 5.9 % National Composite 6 153.66 -0.3 % 3.5 % National Composite 11 154.59 -0.2 % 3.4 % The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; a complete description of the method is given at www.housepriceindex.ca The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in six metropolitan areas: Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver, Montreal and Halifax. The national composite index is the weighted average of the six metropolitan areas. The weights are based on aggregate value of dwellings as retrieved from the 2006 Statistics Canada Census. According to that census1, the aggregate value of occupied dwellings in the metropolitan areas covered by the indices was $1.168 trillion, or 53% of the Canadian aggregate value of $2.207 trillion. All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005. By: Marc Pinsonneault Senior Economist Economy & Strategy Group National Bank of Canada Teranet - National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for their special collaboration on this report. 1 Value of Dwelling for the Owner-occupied Non-farm, Non-reserve Private Dwellings of Canada.