Below are updated sales, inventory and months of inventory graphs for Greater Vancouver to August 2011.
Commentary: August 2011, as July 2011, has produced more tepid sales numbers than years' past. A continued trend of higher months of inventory (MOI, the number of months it would take to clear month-end inventory at current monthly sales levels), a key indicator of market liquidity and impending price strength, is typical in the second half. Lest we forget that prices are still high by most validated measures and it will take a prolonged period of MOI well above 6 to bring them down to more historic levels. We are currently at about 6.5. Below is the predictor of price gains, based on half-over-half price change to months of inventory correlation:
The rubber is about to hit the road. Last September inventory left the market and we had another run up.
Will history repeat itself or are we playing by new rules?
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