Below are updated sales, inventory and months of inventory graphs for Greater Vancouver to July 2011.
Commentary: July 2011 has produced more tepid sales numbers, though inventory remains muted compared to previous weak years. Why is this? Hard to know for sure but given the price gains of late, there is a supposed "out" for some home owners by refinancing, through banks or through their internal accounts, using newly-appraised values as justification. No doubt many, if not most, investors are "in it for the long run". Below is the predictor of price gains, based on half-over-half price change to months of inventory correlation:
4 comments:
Too bad we can't go back further all those years are either boom or crisis or recovering from crisis years. Nobody knows what a "normal" year looks like.
"Nobody knows what a "normal" year looks like"
The data I have are in a google spreadsheet here.
I have piecemeal sales and inventory numbers from before 2005 but not the complete picture. I am pretty sure a lot of it is contained in the catacombs of vancouvercondo.info comments of years past.
For example I know for-sale inventory was way higher in the late-'90s, usurping even 2008 (I think). Prices didn't fall that much during that period, even though sales were lackluster, i.e. persistently high MOI. Interesting...
Thanks for the numbers/charts, jesse.
So, weaker than most but not as weak as 2008 or 2010.
Still, this is the way a slow-down could very well commence.
All I know is that either people in Vancouver are moving out the westside or prices are falling. I've been watching condo prices for 700 odd sq feet in Vancouver for the last 4 years. Always planned to buy if the price was right. Up until now I'd rarely see them priced below 350k on the westside. I'm even seeing some at 250k, albeit those are old condos.
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