Monday, July 04, 2011

Greater Vancouver Market Snapshot June 2011

Below are updated sales, inventory and months of inventory graphs for Greater Vancouver to June 2011.
Commentary: the market for the first half of the year has been robust, though in aggregate weaker than in the heady days of 2005-2007. Parts of the Greater Vancouver market are by all accounts hot, others not so much. It appears that condo prices are weaker where detached prices are stronger.

2011 to date has been robust for the detached benchmark. It looks as though the simple linear model -- correlating 3 month moving average months of inventory (MOI) to half-over-half price changes and using it as a predictor of house prices for the month -- is showing some deviation of late in the form of scaling error. The general correlation exists, however, enough for us to anticipate with a high degree of certainty that if the Vancouver market is to exhibit signs of significant distress, it will show up through higher months of inventory, and that we will have ample warning signs before year-over-year price drops start occurring. In the meantime, if you're looking for prices to fall significantly, get comfortable. It will be a few years yet (if ever).

PS if anyone has historical inventory numbers going back to 1998, please let me know. My data only go to 2005.


Fish10 said...

Nice graphs Jesse

jesse said...

One thing to note is that it's likely the detached benchmark is being skewed higher by sales of higher-end properties in more affluent areas of the region. The benchmark price does not explicitly account for quality so sales of higher-quality units would tend to register a higher benchmark price.