I admit it. I have an addiction to maps and charts. I love looking at them and I love creating them. They provide a visual insight into raw numerical data like lat / long coordinates and data points in a series. I think maps and charts can tell a story too, just like a picture is worth a thousand words, a chart is worth a 1000 data points!
In the past 30 years Vancouver has experienced 4 significant real estate price contractions. 3 of these price contractions are represented in chart form here.
The last contraction was from 1Q 1995 through 3Q 2000 and represented a 13.8% decrease in prices from a high of $418,050 to a low of $360,220.
The previous contraction in 1990 was very short lived at only 3 quarters. This contraction was from 2Q 1990 through 1Q 1991 and represented a 15.3% decrease in prices from $324,710 to $284,750.
The most memorable real estate price contraction in BC history was in 1981. It was memorable because of its magnitude and suddenness. The contraction lasted from 1Q 1981 to 2Q 1985 and it saw nominal benchmark prices decrease 32.3% from $229,730 to $155,560.
Clearly, price contractions can last a long time and represent fantastic opportunities for real estate buyers. We are currently far above the nominal price trendline and one would expect, based on history, that we will see prices fall below the trendline at some point in the future. This will represent a great opportunity for real estate buyers.
The trendline is at roughly $520,000 for the Vancouver CMA detached benchmark and that threshold represents a potential buying point if prices dropped below that mark. Currently prices would need to fall 26.8% for the trendline to be breached. If history is any guide, prices will likely fall below the trendline before the next run up in prices.