Below are price graphs, the first two are alternate depictions of 6 month change in prices versus months of inventory, the last is the annualized change in MLS residential composite HPI for REBGV, showing close to -10% drops.
While prices have come off some since 2018, price growth through the 2010s has been quite robust, around 7% gains annualized. Another year of falling prices followed by a period of stagnation would see prices in real terms return to mid-2000s levels within about 5 years, after accounting for some priced-in density premiums and lower cost of capital. I don't know where interest rates are heading in the medium term, but at some point there will be a bottom for prices. A true correction will see inventory elevated for several years before it begins to bleed off. (NB: units under construction remain very high and completions will continue to be high for some time.) Once bleed-off starts accelerating, there is a good chance there won't be much more downside. Something to watch for in the coming years.
