March 13, 2019
Largest retreat for a February outside of
recession
In February the Teranet–National Bank
National Composite House Price IndexTM was down 0.4%
from the previous month.[1] Except for the recession
year of 2009, it was the largest February decline in 19 years of
index history. Indexes lost ground in nine of the 11 metropolitan
markets of the composite index: Victoria (−2.0%), Hamilton
(−1.4%), Quebec City (−1.2%), Calgary (−0.8%), Vancouver (−0.7%),
Ottawa-Gatineau (−0.7%), Winnipeg (−0.4%), Toronto (−0.2%) and
Edmonton (−0.1%). The only indexes up from the month before were
those for Montreal (0.4%) and Halifax (0.3%).
All five constituent markets in Western
Canada have now joined the downtrend. For Calgary it was the eighth
consecutive month without a rise, a cumulative decline of 3.2%, for
Vancouver the seventh (a cumulative −3.9%), for Edmonton the sixth
(−3.5%) and for Victoria the fifth (−2.5%). The index for Winnipeg
has risen only once in the last five months (cumulative −1.9%). In
central Canada, Hamilton has gone five months without a rise
(cumulative −2.3%) and Ottawa-Gatineau has risen in only one of the
last five months (cumulative −0.8%). The index for Montreal, in
striking contrast, has declined only once in the last 11 months
(cumulative gain 5.3%) and is the only constituent index that was
up from six months earlier. For the composite index it was a fifth
consecutive month without a rise, for a cumulative decline of 1.4%.
Teranet-National
Bank National Composite House Price Index™
In changes from 12 months earlier, only
three indexes showed the weakness that has more recently become
apparent in several regions: Calgary (−2.7%), Edmonton (−1.6%) and
Vancouver (−1.1%). The change from a year earlier remained positive
for Halifax (1.2%), Winnipeg (1.3%), Victoria (2.8%), Hamilton
(3.0%), Quebec City (3.5%), Toronto (3.6%), Montreal (5.2%) and
Ottawa-Gatineau (6.0%). The composite index was up 1.9% from a year
earlier.
Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes
included in the composite index, indexes exist for the seven other
urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe. In February, they were down
from the previous month for Kitchener (−1.3%), St. Catharines
(−1.0%), Oshawa (−0.5%) and Guelph (−0.3%). The index for Barrie
was flat. Indexes were up for Peterborough (0.5%) and Brantford
(1.5%). As with Toronto, Hamilton and Ottawa-Gatineau, none of
these indexes was higher than it had been six months earlier.
Indexes not included in the composite
index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe,
five in Ontario and two in B.C. In February four of them were down
from the month before: Sudbury (−3.4%), Kingston (−2.6%),
Abbotsford Mission (−0.9%) and Windsor (−0.4%%). Kelowna was up
0.3%, Thunder Bay 0.3% and London 0.9%. Only two of these seven,
Windsor and London, were up from six months earlier. In other
words, of 25 metropolitan markets surveyed, only three – Montreal,
Windsor and London – were up from six months earlier, the weakest
diffusion of six-month gains for any February since the recession.
For the full report
including historical data, please visit our website.
*Note
on methodology: The current-month data used to
calculate the index are those of closed sales registered in the
provincial land registry. To illustrate the home price trend, the
published indexes of the 11 metropolitan markets entering into the
Teranet–National Bank Composite House Price Index™ are moving
averages of the last three months of raw indexes. This procedure
evens out month-to-month fluctuations. More granular monthly data
are available upon request, possibly subject to subscription fees.
For further information about the methodology, please visit www.housepriceindex.ca |
