Tuesday, January 06, 2009

Fraser Valley Real Estate Now at 7 Months of Price Declines

Active Listings in the Fraser Valley real estate market fell by a normal seasonal amount from November to December as many hopeful real estate sellers pull their homes off the market during the dreary winter months hoping for better luck in the spring. Good luck with that. Active listings are at the highest year end level for which I have records which does not bode well for those trying to get top dollar for their listed properties in 2009. Click on a chart to enlarge it for a better view.


Sales were extremely low at well under half the monthly volume of the heyday years of not so long ago. 508 sales is very little. It amuses me how the Real Estate Board highlighted the fact that December sales were higher than November sales. Yes, I can do math too Kelvin - - 508 is bigger than 507. How this is relevant I do not know.

Months of inventory remains highly elevated and is an important indicator of a distressed real estate market at these levels. Look for further price declines throughout 2009.



The sell list ratio is extremely low which indicates that very few real estate wanna-be-sellers are turning into real estate sellers. Consequently, price pressure is highly negative as those who must sell are forced to lower prices to draw in potential buyers.

Median Prices are continuing to retreat.

The correlation of the supply/demand metric and price changes is continuing to be remarkably resilient as we have moved to the other end of the see saw. It is as if somebody flipped a switch in May 2008 and buyers stopped showing up.

Benchmark home prices, which are the best indicator of the actual change in property values have declined nearly 10% now and values are at the September 2006 level.



The story for 2009 will be more of the same. Bargain hunters will likely start seeing more and more value as desperate sellers try to move their properties. I fully expect that 2009 will be a flipper bloodbath as many of these wanna-be real estate moguls get smacked with month after month of carrying costs and are forced into the new reality of declining real estate values. If you need to sell a home in 2009 make sure you price it lower than everybody else unless you want to chase the market down.

2 comments:

Toronto Condo said...

Anticipating fallout from the global economic downturn, Lower Mainland charities are asking REALTORS® to collect up to 50 per cent more donations of new and gently used warm clothing and blankets during this year’s 14th Annual REALTORS Care Blanket Drive, November 24 to December 1.Kelvin Neufeld, President of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board confirms the demand for assistance is at its highest level ever, “Our local charities are facing a number of challenges. Their current supply of clothing and blankets is already depleted because our communities have seen a steady increase in the number of working poor and homeless.“Now with economic uncertainty on the horizon, many of our charities that used to put a cap on donations have told us it’s unlimited this year. They’re asking REALTORS and members of the public to please give everything we can.”Dave Murray, Manager of the Abbotsford Food Bank explains, “We’re now serving 5,000 people a month at our facility, 18 per cent of whom are working poor adults, 60 per cent are single parents. Their money goes to rent, food and utilities. They don’t have money for clothing, which is why we rely on the REALTORS® Care Blanket Drive for donations of these warm, quality items.”For the first time, charities have provided detailed wish lists of what they need most including: clean, gently used blankets, sleeping bags, winter coats, jeans (size 34 and smaller), sweat pants, hoodies, long-sleeved shirts and in particular socks....Toronto Condo

Davieharely said...

Sales were extremely low at well under half the monthly volume of the heyday years of not so long ago. 508 sales is very little. It amuses me how the Real Estate Board highlighted the fact that December sales were higher than November sales.fake rolex watches