Friday, December 02, 2016

REBGV Sales Update Through November 2016

REBGV released their stats package through November 2016. Here are d numbers:






[Note: minor edits from October below - ed]

Sales are average -- and on the low side of average -- and markedly slower than the spring. Inventory is creeping higher but slowly starting to decrease, which is what usually occurs in the last months of the year. It is still very low because new listings are not significantly higher than average. Months of inventory has continued to creep up through a combination of rising inventory and lower sales. It appears that conditions are not worsening in a significant way.

The market is slower now. As I have mentioned before, a slowdown was all but inevitable to cause prices to stop rising at the rates they have recently. Current conditions could be, but are not necessarily, a very early indication of a more significant price correction in 2017, but there is no indication that such a slowdown is any more likely than other scenarios

Since sales are highest in the spring and inventory tends to climb through the first half of the year, prices in the spring tend to be more robust than the second half of the year. If you are looking for significant downwards price changes, they will most likely manifest in the house price index data no earlier than the fall of 2017, and that will necessarily be predicated by sluggish sales and rising inventory in the first half of the year. We are not to the point where a price drop is a surety, but there are sufficient conditions in place for it to occur.

Wednesday, November 02, 2016

REBGV Sales Update Through October 2016

REBGV released their stats package through October 2016. Here are z numbers:











Sales are average -- and on the low side of average -- and markedly slower than the spring. Inventory is creeping higher but slowly. It is still very low because new listings are not significantly higher than average. Months of inventory has continued to creep up through a combination of rising inventory and lower sales. It appears that conditions are not worsening in a significant way.

The market is slower now. As I have mentioned before, a slowdown was all but inevitable to cause prices to stop rising at the rates they have recently. Current conditions could be, but are not necessarily, a very early indication of a more significant price correction in 2017. 

Since sales are highest in the spring and inventory tends to climb through the first half of the year, prices in the spring tend to be more robust than the second half of the year. If you are looking for significant downwards price changes, they will most likely manifest in the house price index data no earlier than the fall of 2017, and that will necessarily be predicated by sluggish sales and rising inventory in the first half of the year. We are not to the point where a price drop is a surety, but there are sufficient conditions in place for it to occur.

Tuesday, October 04, 2016

REBGV Sales Update Through September 2016

REBGV released their stats package through September 2016. Here are z numbers:









Sales are average -- and on the low side of average -- and markedly slower than the spring. Inventory is creeping higher but slowly. It is still very low because new listings are not significantly higher than average. Months of inventory has continued to creep up through a combination of rising inventory and lower sales.

The market is slower now. As I have mentioned before, a slowdown was all but inevitable to cause prices to stop rising at the rates they have recently. Current conditions could be, but are not necessarily, a very early indication of a more significant price correction in 2017. 

Since sales are highest in the spring and inventory tends to climb through the first half of the year, prices in the spring tend to be more robust than the second half of the year. If you are looking for significant downwards price changes, they will most likely manifest in the house price index data no earlier than the fall of 2017, and that will necessarily be predicated by sluggish sales and rising inventory in the first half of the year. We are not to the point where a price drop is a surety, but there are sufficient conditions in place for it to occur.

Friday, September 02, 2016

REBGV Sales Update Through August 2016

REBGV released their stats package through August 2016. Here are z numbers:









Sales are average but markedly slower than the spring. Inventory is creeping higher but slowly. It is still very low because new listings are not significantly higher than average. A few more months of "average" would set up 2017's starting inventory "base" to be healthy. 2017 could then be whatever it wants itself to be. (That was not the case at the beginning of this year when inventory was very low.)

A slowdown had to happen sometime. That necessarily meant lower sales. My suggestion is not to over-think the most recent sales data — corrections take years to manifest and a significant and near-unprecedented 20% "correction" would only return prices to 2015, let alone to where some people are hoping they settle.

In summary, evidence of a constructive evolution in Vancouver housing market conditions continues to accumulate.

Wednesday, August 03, 2016

REBGV Sales Update Through July 2016

REBGV released data for July 2016. Inventory is starting to creep up from unprecedented lows

This is mostly due to a marked drop in sales, which are now trending about average compared to the last decade. A surprisingly not-well-discussed way of increasing supply is to reduce sales (i.e. demand).

Months of inventory is, due to the drop in sales, up sharply from the low in the spring. Still low, but a few more months of average sales will bring MOI back into historical territory. If historical territory for MOI is retaken, we can expect price changes to moderate. MOI would continue to move up with lower sales rates because more properties stay on the market for longer, and begin to accumulate.


New listings are trending as they have historically.

As I have mentioned in previous posts, a return to normal levels of MOI is necessary for the market to retract from two years of significant price gains. We may be experiencing the beginnings of this process. Blame what or who you like, but from my analysis, the only thing we can say for certain about causes for a real estate market correction (or, if you prefer, "soft landing") is their proximity to the observer. It would have to be something. Not that the market is soft-landing-ing. I never said that.