Friday, January 02, 2009

Case Shiller House Price Index - October 2008 Data



The inspiration for the chart above (click to enlarge) comes from the Seattle Bubble Blog.. The chart shows the total decline in value from peak pricing in all of the 20 Case Shiller markets plus I've added Vancouver using the REBGV Benchmark House Price Index. I have started all the markets at 100 at their peak month so all the markets start out at the same spot.

Vancouver's real estate prices are falling faster than any US market 7 months into our correction and it sure seems like that won't be changing anytime soon with nearly 20 months of inventoryin the REBGV area as of December 31st, 2008.

Miami, Phoenix, Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Detroit and Las Vegas are the biggest decliners to date with total declines in the range of 35 - 40% off peak pricing 2 years into the correction. I am optimistic that we may see a bottom forming in some markets late in 2009 but more likely early 2010 in the US. Affordability has been restored in many places so it is realistic to suggest that we could see some stabalization.

10 comments:

Willie From: said...
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macho slob said...

Great work Mo.

We're not only crashing faster than any other North American city, but we're doing it at twice the rate of the nearest rival.
Not all that surprising when you consider the insane price level we raeched long after all fundamentals screemed for a correction.

We've still got a long way to go.

milo said...
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jesse said...

Vancouver's market tends to be cyclical in prices so I would expect to see a relaxation of the slope in the spring, even with higher inventory. The soap opera continues.

Michael said...

Great graph. Thanks for doing this. Would it be possible to add data from Toronto, Calgary etc.

patriotz said...

Great graph, just a couple of questions:

Where's San Diego? Very relevant as it's on the West Coast, it's also the first US market to start falling (late 2005),

You have a 17% decline for Vancouver to date, where does that number come from? I haven't seen the Dec 2008 benchmark anywhere.

Ray Barrett said...

How does your graph jive with this graph: Vancouver UP

mohican said...

I corrected the graph to include San Diego. I missed it when I put it together. Thanks for pointing that out patriotz. I will be adding the December 2008 Vancouver data as soon as it comes out.

I may add other Canadian cities at some point. I will likely use the Teranet House Price Index as most real estate boards do not use a benchmark pricing scheme to adjust for quality.

patriotz said...

How does your graph jive with this graph: Vancouver UP

Average price is very unrepresentative in the short run, especially with the low sales volumes we have now. A few sales at the top end can push up the average even if prices of all properties are falling.

This has been shown very clearly in US markets where the average has often been greatly out of whack with the Case-Shiller index which is based on same house sales. The average will however track the market over the long run.

The REBGV benchmark is not as reliable as the Case-Shiller but I'll bet you anything it's down for December.

Ryan said...

Vancouver's symbol should be a black diamond. That slope is not for the faint of heart.