Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Chilliwack at 7.9 Months of Inventory in May 2008

Well the Chilliwack and Area Real Estate Board released their lowly 1 page statistics package and things aren't looking too bright in the upper Fraser Valley these days if you're trying to sell a home.

May 2008 witnessed a total of 239 residential sales compared to 396 last May for a whopping 40% drop in sales year over year.

May 2008 also saw inventory climb to 1897 active residential listings compared to 1026 last year for a dizzying 85% increase in active listings.

Whoa!

The press release is pretty glum too:

The Board's MLS® system recorded $83,573,500 worth of sales this May. That's a 10 per cent decrease from the total posted this past April, and a 39 per cent drop from the total in May 2007.

A total of 267 properties traded hands through the Board's MLS® system in May 2008, which is eight per cent lower than the total from April and 39 per cent fewer than in May 2007.
"We're seeing low levels of consumer confidence in our region," said Board President Trude Kafka. "These low levels, combined with rising prices for food and fuel, are just a few of the reasons people are not making big ticket purchases."

The total value of home sales recorded through the Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board's MLS® system this May was $75,457,255 – which is 13 per cent lower than the total from April 2008, and 38 per cent below the amount posted in May 2007.

In all, 239 homes were sold through the Board's MLS® system this May. That's 10 per cent less than in April, and 40 per cent less than last May.

The average price of homes sold through the Board's MLS® system this May was $315,721, which is three per cent less than the average from April 2008 and three per cent higher than the average from May 2007. The Board cautions that the average residential price is a useful figure only for establishing trends and comparisons over a period of time. It does not indicate an actual price for a home due to the wide selection of housing available in the area.

A total of 643 new residential listings were added to the Board's MLS® system this May, a 16 per cent jump from May 2007. As the month came to an end, there were 1,897 active residential listings on the Board's MLS® system.

25 comments:

mohican said...

The correction is moving from the outside suburbs into the city. Anecdotal evidence from the upper valley is that home prices are dropping rapidly with YOY% declines already being seen in some neighbourhoods.

jesse said...

It looks like June will merely add to their misery. Looks like their members are starting to hurt. I wonder how many are swimming naked. (shudder...)

oh please said...

Makes me wonder if the same scenario is unfolding in the Okanagan. Anyone know?

Joel said...

funny how Abbotsford is still doing ok, I think.

first_time_buyer said...

Well, what is surprising about Chilliwack. Canadian's (RET) calculations are projecting the whole GV at 7.6 MOI and it is increasing at exponential rate.

Octagonian said...

West Van was at about 10 MOI not too long ago, as reported here, I believe. Anybody know where MOI in West Van is at currently?

jesse said...

See here for listed vs sold. MOI for West Van detached is about 7.5 and probably even higher than that. Apartments are about 5.5.

octagonian, MOI is cyclical. Likely the high MOI you saw was from December/January where sales are slow. It is bad news when the highest sales months have high MOI. Sales will likely only get worse from here on in.

jesse said...

"funny how Abbotsford is still doing ok, I think."

Sales are down 23% YOY. I don't know about inventory. The only bright spot in Abby is townhome prices but this likely is an anomaly.

oh please said...

Hmm. The Vancouver Sun reports that the Okanagan recreational property market is clearly in buyer territory. That can't be a good sign for the residential market either.

Interesting comment there about American owners selling up so they can invest back in their own country.

pricedoutfornow said...

Okanagan stats-so far condo listings up 61% year over year, sales down 34%. Others, townhouses, residential show similar trends. Check out their website
www.omreb.com/index2.htm
From what I hear from a local realtor, yep, it's all very slow. So far I haven't seen many price drops though, my old neighbour is selling her house for $549k, price hasn't been dropped after over 3 months on market.

Alpha_Bear said...

"Makes me wonder if the same scenario is unfolding in the Okanagan. Anyone know?"

Kelowna single family residential sales down 40% YOY, listings inventory up 77% YOY, and average prices up 12.47% YOY. 8.27 months of inventory.

North Okanagan single family residential sales down 46.4% YOY, listings inventory up 64.7% YOY, and average prices up 8.2% YOY. 8.76 months of inventory.

Alpha_Bear said...

Kelowna has more than 15 months of condo inventory, and 10.6 months of townhouse inventory!

The North Okanagan has 12.3 months of condo inventory, and 7.9 months of townhouse inventory.

I expect to see YOY price declines within the next couple of months.

mohican said...

Hot damn - those numbers from the OK are pretty crazy. Rapid price decreases are on the way.

Things are changing really fast now.

oh please said...

Thanks for the Okanagan updates, guys.

There's a CMT post about the biggest five year bond uptick in four years. Might be a short term increase in sales as worried buyers jump in, but if this is the turn and rates go up from here then things could get ugly pretty fast.

freako said...

Yep, this market is grinding to a halt toute de suite. I wonder how many people thought they could "get out" in time. Get in line, buddy.

No false alarm this time. And it is only a matter of time before the MSM picks up on this big time. Right now we only get those reassuring "balanced market" soundbytes. Pretty soon reporters will go out on a limb and state/imply the obvious in no uncertain terms. And the funny thing, I bet that former deniers/apologists/neutrals will change their tune and pile on.

Even slippery Chipman has changed his tune. I expect Tsur Sommerville to preach to us that the bust was the INEVITABLE result of excess speculation blah blah. I expect Muir, CMHC and the builders to stick with the proven "balanced market, expected improvement around the corner" schtick that the NAR has been playing.

freako said...

my old neighbour is selling her house for $549k, price hasn't been dropped after over 3 months on market.

Only a matter of time. Either panic psychology will spread to her, or the passage of time will knock some sense into her. 90 days isn't enough. For some it takes up to a year to get past the denial that things have changed.

patriotz said...

American owners selling up so they can invest back in their own country.

Buy low, sell high.

Imagine that.

Tony Danza said...

Buy low, sell high.

Imagine that.


pffft! that strategy is for old boring guys like Warren Buffett. I prefer the Vancouver RE motto: buy high, sell higher, repeat. If I lose the taxpayer can pick up the tab.

jesse said...

"I expect Tsur Sommerville to preach to us that the bust was the INEVITABLE result of excess speculation"

Yeah but we have him on the record. I don't think we will let him get away with it. A Tsur and Cam idiotic quote post is fast approaching.

I might be able to forgive Cam since he's paid by an industry lobbyist but Tsur, what's his excuse for being so factually incorrect?

johnnyrent said...

Tsur's excuse is not wanting to start a stampede. He'll wait until he's covered in dust from a self-starting stampede and then say he always suspected this would happen.

patriotz said...

I might be able to forgive Cam since he's paid by an industry lobbyist but Tsur, what's his excuse for being so factually incorrect?

He's paid to be an industry lobbyist.

By the taxpayers.

jesse said...

"He's paid to be an industry lobbyist. By the taxpayers."

I would have thought someone employed by the Sauder School of Business would be more objective. Or at least have some financial/economic acumen. Dare to dream.

jesse said...

OT, nice interview with Garth Turner here (hat tip poster Jeff on Rob C's blog)

patriotz said...

I would have thought someone employed by the Sauder School of Business would be more objective.

If a business school is willing to sell its own name, what makes you think that everything else isn't up for sale too?

Nobody would take the "McDonald's School of Nutritional Sciences" seriously.

alexcanuck said...

The fast-food giant is launching a new national physical-education program Tuesday aimed at third through fifth graders and includes games and activities from countries around the world.
http://tinyurl.com/477btq

Been there, done that.
Nothing the marketing monster does surprises me anymore!