Well the model predicted a slowing of the 6 month price change but much steeper decline that was witnessed. Partially, this is due to a real pick up in sales during the latter part of the month of May relieving some of the inventory pressure and causing the month to be a little more on the moderate side.
Sales will likely need to fall further and inventory continue to climb for us to see meaningful price drops. Once the price drops start then its game over for the speculators and super-leveraged. I don't know how anyone has really been able to afford the purchase of a home in the Vancouver area the past entire 3 years but the sales pace is finally slowing and that buyer exhaustion point has been reached or at least pretty close.
Prices in the REBGV area for the benchmark single family home did drop last month and it could very well mean that April was the price top. We will see.
15 comments:
thanks to jesse for his hard work on some of this data interpretation
Is inventory in West Van still towering over the rest of the REBGV? Is it not likely that the collapse will not occur everywhere in Vancouver all at once, and that West Van is Ground Zero?
West Van condo prices are -3.8% year over year. I think that's the biggest crack in Vancouver area real estate.
Thanks for this. Dumb question: what is HOH?
Somewhat off topic: My latest MoneySense magazine put MOI in the Miami area at 34 months(!).
HOH is half over half. It means the % change in price from 6 months ago. See here for the rationale.
The cracks will form in some areas faster than others. SFH Benchmark prices have increased 5% since December 07. A flat benchmark from here until the end of the year would pretty much match the CMHC and GVREB boffins' predictions!
It's also important to remember that benchmark is a specific measure of the market but can hide higher resolution movements in prices. Anecdotal accounts of "strong" and "weak" can be valid but may not be reflected in the headline benchmark price. Add to this the benchmark price itself has error but we cannot quantify it because the procedure used to generate the benchmarks is not transparent.
Thanks for the analysis and the great answer jesse.
Wow, I'm still amazed that people buys these days. Like WTF. Prices are just beyond retardation.
Gotta agree with math...!
Have buyers lost all sense of value???
The insanity should be obvious from the occasional glimpse that allows us to compare the mansions that can be had in sunny Cal and Florida for half of our prices.
With markets crumbling all around us, with a recession on the way, and with inventory growing at an unprecedented rate, CAN THIS STORM GET ANY MORE PERFECT?
WTF are these idiots still thinking about plunging ito this market?
Oil hits $139 as jobless figures stun US
Shares dived after the US unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 5.5%, intensifying fears that the world's biggest economy is sliding into recession. The Dow Jones industrial average lost nearly 400 points, more than 3%, to close at 12,209. In London, the FTSE 100 closed the week down 1.5%, or 88 points, at 5,906.
The US Labor Department said non-farm payrolls fell by 49,000 in May from the month before. That was broadly in line with expectations but the department revised its April figure to show a drop of 28,000 rather than the 20,000 estimate it made last month.
The unemployment rate jumped from 5% in April to 5.5%, the biggest rise since February 1986 and the highest rate since October 2004. As stocks tumbled, so did the dollar, which shed nearly a cent against the euro.
Where were you in '82?
Unemployment levels fall below U.S. rate
Canada has avoided the housing collapse that has devastated many households in the United States... explained Avery Shenfeld, economist at CIBC World Markets.
As for the housing market, Canada's is losing some steam, but is not collapsing like in the United States, allowing employment to remain strong in the construction sector, Mr. Shenfeld said.
Canada's housing market is not collapsing! CIBC says so.
This of course the same CIBC that didn't see the US housing bust coming and took a multi billion dollar haircut US MBS paper.
Prices in the REBGV area for the benchmark single family home did drop last month and it could very well mean that April was the price top. We will see.
I am willing to bet a virtual keg of beer that this turns out to be the case. We will see something like a half percent decline at first, then as the drop picks up steam, we will see multiple percent drops per month.
Have buyers lost all sense of value???
Yes, they have. Temporarily. Once price drops become a reality, the concept of value will once again have meaning, which of course means further price drops, all the way to the point where prices can be fundamentally justified.
I don't really like virtual beer freako. I prefer the real beer of the chilled ale variety.
I think we should have a real estate bubble party once benchmark prices go down say 20% on a nominal basis.
I'll buy a round or two with the accumulated google adsense money that I've earned through the blog.
I don't really like virtual beer freako. I prefer the real beer of the chilled ale variety.
Yeah, but you'd never take the other side of that bet.
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