Wednesday, February 27, 2008

US Home Prices

This chart is brought to you by the Mess That Greenspan Made and the S&P Case Shiller Index.



My goodness the prices just keep getting lower and lower. Let's just file this one under "You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet."

Miami - wow. Los Angeles - whew - I'm feeling dizzy. Every single market is declining and many have just started but those steep curves for LA and Miami are something to behold.

Oh how I remember the days when the US housing bubble bloggers were being lambasted for saying that house prices were going to fall - many critics said it couldn't happen and that their area was different. Sweet vindication of their point of view only soured by the knowledge that real families are being financially ruined as we speak.

Coming soon to a city near you.

10 comments:

Vanonymous said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Fencesitter said...

These are inflation adjusted, right?

What effect will stagflation have on these number?

mohican said...

fencesitter - the number are not inflation adjusted

JMK said...

To put this in perspective, Greater Vancouver is at about 215 on this chart, correct? Hardly the bubbliest locale in North America.

patriotz said...

Yes it is, actually, because the US cities with higher prices than Vancouver have much higher incomes.

Vancouver now has a higher price/income than any US city.

patriotz said...

only soured by the knowledge that real families are being financially ruined as we speak

The families were financially ruined when they bought the houses at inflated prices, or refinanced their houses against inflated prices. Not by the falling prices later.

The problem is that people took on debt they could not afford to service, and whose interest costs were way out of line with yield on the asset (rent).

If their debts had been manageable, the falling prices would not have mattered. Actually, the prices would not have fallen so much in the first place, because the prices would not have gone up so much beforehand.

JMK said...

Yes it is, actually, because the US cities with higher prices than Vancouver have much higher incomes.

Vancouver now has a higher price/income than any US city.


I'd be interested to know where you get those statistics.

10 minutes on wikipedia reveals that LA median family household income is $37k. Its $63k in Greater Vancouver (both as of 2000 and 2001 respectively). The median SFH is $550k in LA and $740k for Vancouver. So, that is at least one city that is bubblier.

San Francisco is more expensive, but their median household income is a little less than Vancouver's ($58k). San Diego $46k. Seattle $46k.

Its a myth that Canadians are impoverished relative to our rich American cousins.

Patiently Waiting said...

jmk,

I don't know where you're getting your Vancouver figures, but the first figures I found put Vancouver's median family income at $57,926 in 2001.

http://www.ccsd.ca/pr/2003/censusincome.htm

JMK said...

This was the first link that came up for me GVRD

The number you are quoting looks to be just for Vancouver proper, not Greater Vancouver.

BBY said...

The chart mirrors the bubble trend exactly in that the greater the run-up, the greater the downfall. Just like all the bubbles I've analyzed before this.