Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Additional January 2008 CMHC Data

The January 2008 CMHC Housing Now report for the Vancouver / Abbotsford area came out today.

Here are some highlights that I found interesting.

Units under construction in (during some stage of being built):

  • Entire Vancouver CMA = 25,598
  • Vancouver City and Endowment Lands = 6,752
  • Surrey / White Rock = 5,090
  • Tri-Cities = 3,022
  • Burnaby = 3,081
  • Langley = 1,159
  • Maple Ridge / Pitt Meadows = 1,221
  • New West = 1,286
  • North/West Vancouver = 1653

Completed but Unabsorbed Units (Vacant/unsold and complete housing units; I'm looking for these numbers to skyrocket this year and next as the number of completions begins to catch up):

  • Entire Vancouver CMA = 1,407
  • Surrey / White Rock = 430
  • Langley = 199
  • Maple Ridge / Pitt Meadows = 136
  • Vancouver / Endowment Lands = 290

If you are thinking about buying a new home in any of these areas you should be able to put a lot of pressure on the developer to cut you a good discount because they are sitting on a higher level of inventory than they are used to. Of course I think you'll probably get an even better deal if you wait a little while longer.

12 comments:

domus said...

This is great stuff! Keep up the good work: cheers!

BC Buds said...

Wow! Amazing numbers... 48,862 for the GVRD?

Clarke said...

The developer would have to offer one heck of a discount off current prices for the purchase to be a good value.

expo 86 said...

I can see the sun coming up over the horizon. A new day is dawning.

Thanks, Mohican, for all you do.

bcubbins said...

Completed but Unabsorbed Units (Vacant and complete housing units)

That should be unsold, not vacant. I'm sure the number of vacant units is much higher.

oh please said...

I'd be leery of buying anything built in boom times. Lots of guys working who don't know what they're doing, lots of corners being cut, lots of dope being smoked.... Check the builder's reputation carefully, and check the construction itself even more carefully.

Aleks said...

Yeah, I wouldn't want anything built in the last 5 years. I suspect there will be something akin to the leaky condo crisis a decade or two down the road. And those 2-5-10 warranties won't be worth crap, because the really bad problems will take more than 10 years to show up, just like the leaky condos did.

exvancouverite said...

I'd be leery of buying anything built in boom times. Lots of guys working who don't know what they're doing, lots of corners being cut, lots of dope being smoked....

No doubt. My son works in construction and there seems to be a lot of poaching of workers by other outfits that pay more.
He worked for one group that went belly-up, not for lack of projects, but the crew took a powder, en masse, for better paying jobs with other contractors.

The lower paying builders end up with inexperienced and/or substance abusing day labourers.

Buyers should be hard-nosed about laying out a few hundred thousand bucks for a shoe box.

Mathematical said...

test

Mathematical said...

Sorry, about the "test". Thank you Mohican for all your hard work. i have been forwarding this site to as many people as I can so they can see the light.

jesse said...

expo 86: "A new day is dawning.
"


Don't you mean "Something's happening here" ?

expo 86 said...

Yes, Jesse, you can definitely say "something is happening here." This potentially massive supply combined with substandard quality meets exhausted demand is why I wouldn't be surprised to see prices come down 70 or 80% in some cases. These will be liabilities - not homes.