I had hoped that the local real estate boards would have released the March statistics by now and I would be able to perform my standard analytical affair on them but alas they are not available yet. In
lieu of the actual numbers let's play the guessing game. I would like to know what you think:
- Total Chipman inventory will be at the end of September 2007
- Total FVREB inventory will be at the end of September 2007
- What benchmark / median prices for different housing types will we be talking about in 6 months?
Recognize that this is a futile exercise and its just for fun. Here are my guesses:
- Chipman inventory will peak in September 2007 at over 15,000.
- FVREB inventory will be over 11,000 by the end of September
- We will be talking about benchmark prices / median prices equivalent to March 2006 and down from their March 2007 peak.
What do you think?
11 comments:
By the end of September
* Chipman inventory: 14,000.
* FVREB inventory: no idea.
* Median prices down 5%.
Numbers are out now
Where?
FVREB website
I was looking for the GVREB ones. I'll check those ones out though. Might give an idicator how much pain I'll be in when the GVREB ones come out :-).
Maybe not as much pain as I thought. Inventory up yoy, sales down yoy. Slight price uptick mom. Apartments actually down mom. Could be worse.
Yeah, it didn't look too bad fo the bears did it?
What is the url to that relocation company that publishes the GVREB stats as soon as they are out?
freako - the link is at the top right of the main page.
"bakakuse said...
Chipman'a inventory at 13000, and prices flat. No panic yet but realtors will know prices have to fall to create sales and might help bring them down."
This is exactly what I was thinking Bakakuse, especially after reading the data. The way it is written helps the stats jump out and I think its deliberate... The REBGV would be stoopid not to look at previous crashes & what is happening in the states and trying to learn lessons and mitigate to some degree a market crash.
Excellent work on the stats!!
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