Providing Thoughtful Analysis on the Housing Market
Cheers!It's gonna crash so badly even people with solid financial planning and savings will be scared.This is a big one and it's coming Vancouver's way!
Almost forgot to mention....even SFH have started picking up......it's going bears' way.....
I think we are busting out of the 2007 linear trendline. It seems to add about 750 a month. The recent trend seems to be about double that. I think it will accelerate from there. At least until late fall.
Do you have any similar stats for the Fraser Valley or Langley areas? In a previous posting you refered to these areas as being the ones to watch as a leading indicator for price decreases, so I'm interested in knowing if this will hold true with your increasing inventory theory.
Supply factors alone would result in price decreases, but the hyper supply and the affordability issues suggest the big correction is starting. I do not see a 12% price drop by year end as being very unlikely. I suspect the condo market will likely lead the way.
Evidence is emerging that this may unravel at a faster pace than I had previously suspected.There's been a sudden climb in SFH inventory in some areas on the westside.I agree with other posters on various threads that we'll likely see the price reductions march from lower priced units to SFHs, and a similar parallel march from rural to downtown. Decompression.What's currently happening to sales/prices of rural lots and apartments?
Anyone who is honestly surprised by the magnitude of mohicans predicted correction must either be very young or have a short memory.The market dropped 45% after the 81 peak, 25% after the 90 peak, and 23% after the 95 peak, and most of the damage always happened in less than a year.Unlike our current bubble, those previous peaks were quite tiny and most ended abruptly with little warning. The speed of those drops is evidence of what can happen when reality kicks in and generates a bit of panic.With warnings of affordability, demographics, mortgage defaults and looming recession being shouted across the continent, I'm amazed at the number of mental midgets who think our local market will continue to climb, only because it has defied rational logic for the last 2 years. I was also surprised by mohicans prediction, as I think the drop will be much steeper and faster.
Peak to trough in prior drops ranged between 2 and 4 years.A well known TA commentator (Grantham?) recently predicted 24-30 months peak to trough for Vancouver.I wouldn't be surprised by a vicious drop a la early 1980s, BUT I then expect an additional grind down to trough, and that could take years.The damage done could be more 1929 than 1987 (stock market analogies).
One can only hope?But who is still buying this stuff at these prices? Check out this recent sale (MLS#643170), in less than one week, for likely over asking & multiple offers. This last sold 4-5 years ago in the $5/600K range.Things are still crazy it seems...
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