Well we are near the end of April and in the midst of the hot spring selling season for real estate and I doesn't look so hot from where I stand. Inventory keeps growing. The ratio of homes being listed to the ones being sold is high compared to hotter selling times.
The Chipman area popped over the 11,000 inventory mark on Friday. The trend is up, up, up, meaning more selection for buyers and more competition for sellers. If I was shopping for a house this spring I might wait given the chance to choose from a wider selection if I waited.
13 comments:
In all fairness, you should trendline the FCN and VWSFH graphs as well. Interesting the Rsquared of the inventory trend in Rob's area is so high to date.
Jesse - i don't know if that would be terribly useful given the small sample sizes in those areas. I'll put them on there for next week though.
Mohican, any info about the months of inventory in the different areas/categories?
Thanks a lot for the graphs, you are doing a great job.
Also, another question for you: over at Chipman's there was an interesting discussion regarding affordability of RE in Vancouver. Have you got any take on that?
Last question: what would be your financial allocation for a downpayment from someone who is not willing to buy for at least another couple of years but has a certain amount of cash (say 200k) to invest?
Brokerage online? Shares? Bonds?
Anybody think the Chipman area will break 14K by the end of May? That would work out to 101 listing per business day (though maybe Saturdays should be counted too?).
The listings grew by 55 per business day for April to date. And that is not counting month end expirations, so a brisk pickup in listings and/or a slowdown in sales would be required. Not out of the question.
Oops, I meant 13K. That would require 66 added listings per business day, a pickup of 20% over April pace to date. Not as big a stretch.
I say we it 12k by May 9th!
If we hot 12k by the end of May it is a true sign of a crash. It would mean at least 15k by the time October comes. That would be serious downward pressure on prices.
Incidentally, the area on MLS that my wife keeps track of has ballooned from 295 listings on April 13 to 324 listings this weekend. A 10% jump in 10 days! And this is Vancouver Westside SFHs (not all neighbourhoods, but a solid jump!).
"It would mean at least 15k by the time October comes."
I think you will see 15K long before that.
Maybe we could hit 15k before October, but I'd rather stay conservative.
I have been thinking what would be a stock of listings which could trigger mass panic among vendors: based on past years' sales I believe that 14k might be the magic number (if reached in the warm months). Anything above that can give a serious scare to speculators, investors and landlords.
Such inventory would take all the pressure away from buyers and lead many to reconsider their options.
"the area on MLS that my wife keeps track of has ballooned from 295 listings on April 13 to 324 listings this weekend."
FWIW, one buying a house does not preclude a significant other from continuing to cruise real estate porn on the internet (MLS) and on HGTV (AKA the Bankruptcy Channel). We all have our vices. coughblogging.
I'm curious, though, about this--and I have no, zero, investment in being bearish or bullish--but where we're looking at houses and duplexes, (Kits, the Drive, Mt. Pleasant, similar places), houses are disappearing very quickly and at asking price or more. Why is there a disconnect between these apparent numbers and the actual experience of house hunting?
Nokem, my experience has been that anything decent that's priced "low" seems to go pretty quick. That was certainly the case when I sold my place a few weeks ago.
However, buyers don't seem to be jumping at anything priced high-- if the seller is trying to get a large premium over last year's prices, their property seems to sit and sit and sit.
The last few years, that didn't really matter-- the market would move up to meet their asking price, and they'd sell at full price (or very close). Now, things are sitting longer. The stats will indicate whether the market's moving up much or not. I got 21% more than my 2007 assessment value. Other places that I've been looking at have sat for a while and then sold at their 2007 assessment value, so who knows where things are going.
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