Three weeks ago the BC Budget was released. The basis for the revenue and cost projections for the budget was an average 6.2% unemployment rate in 2009, falling to 6.0% in 2010.
I previously posted on this topic here. For the assumptions in the budget, see this pdf page 87.
How are we doing so far? Well, three weeks after their projection, unemployment has now hit 6.7%--up 0.6% from January. I'll put up the graphs later, but it appears to be going hyperbolic. [UPDATE: here it is! I think my 10% by 2010 prediction is looking likely.]
In short, the $495 million dollar deficit projection has now been blown out of the water.
I'm not clairvoyant here. I just observed that housing starts were going to plummet leading to construction employment to go back to pre-bubble levels. If you do the math, you can see what will hapen to employment. But, I'm sure all we'll hear from the usual economic commentators and our government leaders is another chorus of 'hoocoodanode'.
Enough with the koolaid and the rose coloured glasses! Can we please all open up a can of reality soda and get on with what has to be done?