Monday, December 29, 2008

November 2008 CMHC Data Redux

I recently posted about the CMHC data released for November 2008 and I wanted to revisit the statistics again because of a couple data errors and a desire to have a thorough examination of the facts.  Here is how things stand according to the CMHC Housing Now released this morning.


All data for November 2008:

Starts  = 973
Completions = 1628
Under Construction = 26035
Completed but Not Absorbed Units = 2261

This is the time of year for predictions so here are some things I expect we will see in 2009:

1) Starts will fall dramatically to the 12,000 annualized level.
2) Completions will also fall but will exceed starts for the next couple years.
3) Under Construction will fall to the 18,000 level or more by the end of 2009.
4) Completed and Not Absorbed units will rise significantly to over 4,000 units.

What do you think?

6 comments:

M- said...

Starts=973? Yikes, that sounds collapse-worthy. 12 months of starts like this add up to under 12,000 units per year being started. Yep, the crash is certainly getting started!

...Incidentally, I was talking to a friend last week. He's a subcontractor, and his residential new construction work has just about dried up-- he's OK because his industrial work is going fine, but he's got concerns. He tells me that Onni has frozen a number of their projects of late.

mechie said...

Are you are being deliberately optimistic regarding future starts and unabsorbed units?

12K for the former and 4K for the latter seem awfully generous to me. An inversion of those numbers looks a lot closer to the eventual (within ~1-2yrs) outcome, given the unprecedented pipeline of inventory.

mohican said...

mechie - the predictions I posted are for the year 2009 only. Things will probably get much worse in 2010. I could see starts getting well below 10k and not absorbed units going well above 6k and likely higher.

milo said...

There are only about 300,000 SFH’s in Vancouver, so how will a falling start be good for housing prices? That is if the number of international immigrants, international students, and foreign workers continue to rise. http://www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/
famil124g-eng.htm


According to the Vancouver Sun, salaries exceeding $200k are on the rise for many sectors. So more locals can now afford to pay more for housing.

B.C. government salaries
http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/
pdf/salgov1.pdf

Local government salaries
http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/
pdf/salgov2.pdf

Crown Corporation salaries
http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/
pdf/salgov3.pdf

Municipal police salaries
http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/
pdf/salgov4.pdf

Health service authority salaries
http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/
pdf/salgov5.pdf

University and colleges salaries
http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/
pdf/salgov6.pdf

jesse said...

milo, you have successfully identified about 100 people that have 6 figure salaries. What about the other 1MM or so salaries out there. Median prices and median incomes tell the full story. Government salaries are always oblivious to the fates of the rest of the populous but, that said, it's worth remembering where the monies for their salaries originate.

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