Wednesday, April 26, 2017

Vancouver Teranet HPI and Inventory update

Long-time readers of this blog will be familiar with the model that mohican devised that relates house price index (HPI) changes to the ratio of for-sale inventory to monthly sales (months of inventory or MOI). Below is an update to this data series with some brief analysis.

The first graph plots the time series of the 6 month change in the Teranet Vancouver HPI and REBGV MOI. The correlation is clear from direct observation.


The second graph is a scatterplot of HPI change versus months of inventory, with a time shift to optimise for highest correlation.

And finally the same scatterplot but with year-on-year HPI change with a 6 month lag.


The only likely way to get higher MOI is to have higher inventory, and the advent of higher inventory takes many quarters to materialise (inventory is currently very low). It is for this reason that I do not foresee any significant house price relief in Vancouver in the next year to 18 months.


5 comments:

mohican said...

Agreed. This will take some time to unfold. Completions are coming. MOAR supply is coming. Demand may not change but tighter lending and scrutiny in that sector will play a part on the demand side. Again, that will take time.

jesse said...

Hi Mohican, yes there is some upwards relief for inventory coming in the way of higher unit completions. I am less familiar with the intricacies and changing regulatory environment on the demand side.

Andrew Joy said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Andrew Joy said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Dr Purva Pius said...

My Brothers and Sister all over the world, I am Mrs Boo Wheat from Canada ; i was in need of loan some month ago. i needed a loan to open my restaurant and bar, when one of my long time business partner introduce me to this good and trustful loan lender DR PURVA PIUS that help me out with a loan, and is interest rate is very low , thank God today. I am now a successful business woman, and I became useful. In the life of others, I now hold a restaurant and bar. And about 30 workers, thank GOD for my life I am leaving well today a happy father with three kids, thanks to you DR PURVA PIUS Now I can take care of my lovely family, i can now pay my bill. I am now the bread winner of my family. If you are look for a trustful and reliable loan leader. You can Email him via,mail (urgentloan22@gmail.com) Please tell him Mrs Boo Wheat from Canada introduce you to him. THANKS