HOME PRICES DOWN 0.1% IN NOVEMBER
In November the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ was down 0.1% from the month before, essentially reversing the October gain. Because prices in November 2012 had declined by a greater margin, 12-month home price inflation accelerated to 3.4% from 3.1% in October. The rise from a year earlier exceeded the cross-country average in five of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed for the index: Calgary (5.9%), Hamilton (5.2%), Toronto (4.2%), Vancouver (3.9%) and Quebec City (3.7%). The 12-month gain lagged the average in Edmonton (3.0%), Winnipeg (2.8%), Ottawa-Gatineau (1.2%), Halifax and Montreal (0.8%). Prices were down from a year earlier for a ninth consecutive month in Victoria (−1.4%).
Teranet – National Bank National Composite House Price Index™
The 0.1% monthly decline of the composite index was the fourth November decline in a row. Be it as it may, since November prices have on average gained 0.1% from the month before over the 15 years of data index collection, this year’s retreat does not signal a buoying market. Prices were up on the month in four of the 11 metropolitan areas: Vancouver and Halifax (0.6%), Hamilton (0.3%) and Winnipeg (0.1%). The Winnipeg gain was the first in five months. Prices were down from the month before in Victoria (−1.8%), in Montreal (−0.6%), in Calgary (−0.3%) and in Edmonton, Quebec City, Ottawa-Gatineau and Toronto (−0.2%). Vancouver prices have been rising for seven straight months, reaching a new record in November. However, prices in six of the 11 markets have been trending down recently: for four consecutive months in Quebec City (total −1.8%), Montreal (−1.4%) and Edmonton (−1.1%); for three consecutive months in Ottawa-Gatineau (total −0.8%). Prices have declined 0.4% in Toronto over the last three months and 2.4% over the last two months in Victoria. Despite November’s increase, prices are down 0.7% over the last five months in Winnipeg.
Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™
The historical data of the Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is available at www.housepriceindex.ca.
|Metropolitan area||Index level|
|% change m/m||% change y/y|
|Calgary||172.23||-0.3 %||5.9 %|
|Edmonton||171.19||-0.2 %||3.0 %|
|Halifax||142.07||0.6 %||0.8 %|
|Hamilton||147.03||0.3 %||5.2 %|
|Montreal||149.65||-0.6 %||0.8 %|
|Ottawa||142.39||-0.2 %||1.2 %|
|Quebec||176.42||-0.2 %||3.7 %|
|Toronto||153.50||-0.2 %||4.2 %|
|Vancouver||174.04||0.6 %||3.9 %|
|Victoria||136.22||-1.8 %||-1.4 %|
|Winnipeg||193.82||0.1 %||2.8 %|
|National Composite 6||158.53||0.0 %||3.5 %|
|National Composite 11||159.21||-0.1 %||3.4 %|
The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; a complete description of the method is given at www.housepriceindex.ca.
The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in six metropolitan areas: Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver, Montreal and Halifax. The national composite index is the weighted average of the six metropolitan areas. The weights are based on aggregate value of dwellings as retrieved from the 2006 Statistics Canada Census. According to that census1, the aggregate value of occupied dwellings in the metropolitan areas covered by the indices was $1.168 trillion, or 53% of the Canadian aggregate value of $2.207 trillion.
All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005.
Economy & Strategy Group
National Bank of Canada
Teranet - National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for his special collaboration on this report.