Tuesday, December 18, 2012

BC Population Growth to Q3 2012

BC Stats released its quarterly population estimates and BC continues sluggish growth through Q3 2012.

Population growth consists of the following bulk components:
  • Natural increase (births - deaths)
  • Net interprovincial migration
  • Net international migration (including permanent and non-permanent residents (NPRs))
So let's look at how recent quarters look in a historical context, here graphed since 1961 to show longer-term trends (there is seasonality so quarters are best compared to each other, also do not integrate these graphs, the total population is periodically adjusted during census counts):

The most recent Q3-2012 data indicate continued negative net interprovincial migration (2748 net out of the province).

Population growth through third quarter of 2012 is below its peak of late last decade, due in most part to net out-migration to other provinces and below-average net international migration. Q3 growth has dropped 39% since its recent local peak in 2007, meaning population growth this year was about 10,000 fewer in the quarter. This will have a direct and negative impact on housing demand in the coming quarters. Interprovincial out-migration is of continued concern, with more people leaving the province for others than arriving.


blammo said...

Good stuff Jesse. Would be great to see an historical price chart overlaid for reference.

dik said...

charts are not shown properly.Could you please fix it? Very interesting stuff!

jesse said...

The charts are auto-generated from my google spreadsheet. There are compatibility issues, unfortunately, but I can fix errors on the fly quickly.

I'll publish the latest Q3 chart on my twitter feed.

dik said...

Thanks for fixing and many thanks for interesting post!