Tuesday, November 27, 2012

October 2012 CMHC Data - Vancouver CMA

Here is the chart for housing starts, completions, and under construction for Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) to October 2012:
Below we can see a continued high level of multi-unit construction compared to detached construction. The long-term trend for detached construction is down.

The last three years have seen an increasing amount of starts and under construction volume. Completions are trending upwards, as expected -- completions typically lag starts, so if starts are trending higher that will likely mean completions will trend higher as well. 12 months of completions are now 30% above the trough in 2011. (The actual trough was in early 2011.) With this increased level of completions, and what looks like either a plateaued or further-increasing level of completions into next year, we can expect increased competition among sellers in 2013. 

This is some analysis we can use to help formulate some predictions for the Vancouver housing market in 2013.

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