Wednesday, October 24, 2012

SEPTEMBER HOME PRICES UP 3.6% FROM A YEAR EARLIER


Though monthly changes in the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ tend to be more strongly positive from March through August than in the following six months, this year's September decline of 0.4% was only the third September drop in 13 years of data. The other two were in 2008, as Canada was entering recession, and during the correction of 2010. This year's September prices were down from the month before in six of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed, led by Victoria (−1.3%) and Vancouver (−1.2%). For Vancouver it was the second 1.2% decline in a row, a result consistent with the city's rating as a buyer's market since August by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. Moreover, the Canadian Real Estate Association reports 33% fewer sales in this market than a year earlier. In Ottawa-Gatineau prices were down 0.8% on the month, in Montreal 0.6%. In both markets the number of sales was down 17.4% from a year earlier. In Quebec City prices were down 0.2%, with a 12-month decline of 14.4% in number of sales. Edmonton prices were down 0.7% on the month despite a rise in sales from a year earlier and a tight-market rating. Prices were up 0.5% from the month before in Calgary and Halifax, 0.4% in Winnipeg, 0.3% in Hamilton and 0.1% in Toronto.

Teranet – National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

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The September composite index was up 3.6% from a year earlier, for a 10th consecutive month of deceleration in 12-month inflation. However, the only market in which 12-month inflation has followed the national composite in decelerating for nine straight months is Vancouver. In Montreal inflation has decelerated in nine of the last 10 months, in Toronto in each of the last five months. Six of the 11 markets show 12-month inflation exceeding the national average, with Halifax (8.0%) taking first place from Toronto (7.8%), followed by Hamilton (6.9%), Winnipeg (6.3%), Montreal and Quebec City (3.8% each). The 12-month rise lagged the national average in Calgary and Edmonton (2.2% each) and in Ottawa-Gatineau (2.5%). Prices were down from a year earlier in Vancouver (−1.4%) and Victoria (−2.6%).

Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™



The historical data of the Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ is available at www.housepriceindex.ca.
Metropolitan areaIndex level
September
% change m/m% change y/y
Calgary162.220.5 %2.2 %
Edmonton167.33-0.7 %2.2 %
Halifax142.420.5 %8.0 %
Hamilton139.630.3 %6.9 %
Montreal149.49-0.6 %3.8 %
Ottawa141.94-0.8 %2.5 %
Quebec171.73-0.2 %3.8 %
Toronto148.550.1 %7.8 %
Vancouver168.28-1.2 %-1.4 %
Victoria140.28-1.3 %-2.6 %
Winnipeg189.950.4 %6.3 %
National Composite 6154.10-0.3 %3.8 %
National Composite 11154.97-0.4 %3.6 %
The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; a complete description of the method is given at www.housepriceindex.ca

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in six metropolitan areas: Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver, Montreal and Halifax. The national composite index is the weighted average of the six metropolitan areas. The weights are based on aggregate value of dwellings as retrieved from the 2006 Statistics Canada Census. According to that census1, the aggregate value of occupied dwellings in the metropolitan areas covered by the indices was $1.168 trillion, or 53% of the Canadian aggregate value of $2.207 trillion.

All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005.

1 comment:

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