Wednesday, December 21, 2011

BC Population Growth to Q3 2011

BC Stats just released (PDF) its quarterly population estimates and BC continues sluggish growth through Q3.

Population growth consists of the following bulk components:
  • Natural increase (births - deaths)
  • Net interprovincial migration
  • Net international migration (including permanent and non-permanent residents)
So let's look at how recent quarters look in a historical context (there is seasonality so quarters are best compared to each other):

The most recent Q3-2011 data indicate continued negative net interprovincial migration, but a marked increase in nonpermanent residents (NPRs). (NPRs mostly consist of students and temporary workers.) Q3 usually sees an increase in NPRs due to arriving students commencing collegiate pursuits in September. The most recent CMHC rental survey indicates decreased rental vacancy; the increase in NPRs provides some evidence supporting the lower reported vacancy rate.

Below are graphs of NPR migration and annual population growth up to 2010:

Weak population growth in Q4-2010 through Q2-2011 has further extended into Q3-2011, and Q3 is respectable mostly by virtue of increased NPR in-migration and not permanent residents. These recent population data are what I would characterise as a continuing bearish indicator for BC real estate, especially for owner-occupier dwelling formation.

1 comment:

Liquid Independence said...

Great info Jesse. My property assessment value this year didn't change much. My friend in North Vancouver said his house even lost a bit of value compared to 2011. I guess this data shows us why. I hope the BC gov't can find some way to make our province more attractive.