Providing Thoughtful Analysis on the Housing Market
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Teranet House Price Index - July 2010
Monthly price rise of 0.5% in July
Canadian home prices in July were up 12.4% from a year earlier, according to the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index. It was the smallest 12-month gain in four months. Such a deceleration was observed in Toronto and Vancouver, where the 12-month increase was nevertheless more than 14%. In Ottawa it was 10.9%. In the other three markets, it was more moderate, ranging from 6.5% to 8.5%.
For the first time in four months, prices did not rise from the month before in all six markets. The Vancouver index was down 0.3% from June. The monthly rises were 0.2% in Halifax, 0.4% in Montreal and Calgary, 1.2% in Toronto and 1.5% in Ottawa. It is plausible to think the index movement in the last two markets was influenced by transactions timed to avoid the July 1 introduction of the harmonized sales tax in Ontario. For the composite index as a whole the monthly rise was 0.5%, the smallest in four months. It was the 15th monthly rise, making this run of increases the longest since October 2006.
Teranet – National Bank National Composite House Price Index™
According to the Canadian Real estate Association, from March to August of this year, more existing homes came on the market than were sold. Therefore, the resale market has been slackening across Canada.
The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; a complete description of the method is given at www.housepriceindex.ca
The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in six metropolitan areas: Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver, Montreal and Halifax. The national composite index is the weighted average of the six metropolitan areas. The weights are based on aggregate value of dwellings as retrieved from the 2006 Statistics Canada Census. According to that census1, the aggregate value of occupied dwellings in the metropolitan areas covered by the indices was $1.168 trillion, or 53% of the Canadian aggregate value of $2.207 trillion.
All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005.
Marc Pinsonneault Senior Economist Economy & Strategy Group National Bank Financial Group
Teranet - National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for their special collaboration on this report.
1 Value of Dwelling for the Owner-occupied Non-farm, Non-reserve Private Dwellings of Canada.