Wednesday, March 31, 2010

January 2010 Teranet House Price Index

MARCH 2010

The smallest monthly increase since prices began rising

Canadian home prices in January were up 7.5% from a year earlier, according to the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™. January was the fourth consecutive month in which prices were up from a year earlier, after 10 consecutive months of 12-month deflation. The turnaround is due to nine straight monthly increases in the countrywide index. However, January's 0.5% monthly gain was the smallest so far.

Teranet – National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

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For the first time in nine months, none of the six metropolitan markets surveyed showed a monthly increase of as much as 1%. The rise was 0.9% in Vancouver, 0.7% in Toronto, 0.6% in Halifax, 0.4% in Montreal and 0.3% in Ottawa. In Calgary prices declined 0.5%. Prices are now down 9.7% from the previous peak in Calgary and 0.2% in Vancouver. The other four markets passed their pre-recession peaks between May and October last year.

The index is now up 9.0% from its April 2009 bottom. This steep rise has been led by Vancouver (up 11.7% from May 2009) and Toronto (11.0% from April 2009). In other markets the increases have been more modest: Calgary 6.7% since June, Ottawa 6.5% since last April, Montreal 3.6% since February 2009, Halifax 1.5% since February 2009.

The 12-month appreciation was 9.4% in Toronto, 8.9% in Vancouver, 8.1% in Ottawa, 5.3% in Montreal, 4.6% in Halifax and 1.9% in Calgary.

Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™

The historical data of the Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ is available at www.housepriceindex.ca.

Metropolitan areaIndex level
January 2010
% change m/m% change y/yFrom troughTrough Date
Calgary158.27-0.5 %1.9 %6.7%June 2009
Halifax122.980.6 %4.6 %1.5%February 2009
Montreal128.480.4 %5.3 %3.6%February 2009
Ottawa123.170.3 %8.1 %6.5%April 2009
Toronto120.440.7 %9.4 %11.0%April 2009
Vancouver150.390.9 %8.9 %11.7%May 2009
National Composite132.860.5 %7.5 %9.0%April 2009

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; a complete description of the method is given at www.housepriceindex.ca

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in six metropolitan areas: Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver, Montreal and Halifax. The national composite index is the weighted average of the six metropolitan areas. The weights are based on aggregate value of dwellings as retrieved from the 2006 Statistics Canada Census. According to that census1, the aggregate value of occupied dwellings in the metropolitan areas covered by the indices was $1.168 trillion, or 53% of the Canadian aggregate value of $2.207 trillion.

All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005.

By:

Marc Pinsonneault
Senior Economist
Economy & Strategy Group
National Bank Financial Group

Teranet - National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for their special collaboration on this report.

1 Value of Dwelling for the Owner-occupied Non-farm, Non-reserve Private Dwellings of Canada.

3 comments:

first_time_buyer said...

here comes jimbo... run guys.

patriotz said...

I prefer the price chart itself to the YOY because it's a lot easier to mentally differentiate the former to intuit the latter than integrate the latter to intuit the former. IOW the price chart tells me more at a glance.

On this topic, take a look at the Vancouver price chart at Teranet. Classic double top - one for the textbooks. And which is not apparent on the YOY.

vreaa said...

Why we are where we are:

Fear and Ignorance in Vancouver – 34yr Old FTB Overpays For Condo; Inadvertently Becomes A Landlord – “It’s a learning process that’s so scary. No one can ever tell you what it’s going to be like. At least I’m in the market and I’m learning.”

http://wp.me/pcq1o-Fm