Friday, August 07, 2009

Chart Extravaganza!!

Case Shiller and Teranet both released data for May 2009 last week and I have compiled / updated some charts to display this data.

The first chart shows the monthly percent price change in selected cities. What I would note here is the clear seasonal effect on price movement. Prices are more likely to increase in the spring and summer and more likely to decline in the fall and winter.



I recalculated the Teranet and Case Shiller Indices to show the same base date in 2000 so we can view the results of the boom and bust in the US and Canada in a comparable way. It is amazing to me how high prices got and how far they have fallen in some places - almost back to pre-boom levels.



The last chart is the now well known price decline from peak chart. I added Calgary upon request from some regular readers from Calgary. The smoothing (3 month moving average) that takes place in the Case Shiller and Teranet data really makes a big difference in how peaks and price changes are displayed.

8 comments:

Ian said...

Thanks for the analyses, Mohican. It will be interesting to see if the Teranet data recapitulates the REBGV price bounce or if the two series eventually intersect.

wizardofozziejurock said...

Very nice chart work Mohican, thanks for that!

JimTan said...

Told you that it didn't look like a spring bounce!

david said...

Jim going by the teranet data it looks almost exactly the same as many american cities before they continued their plunge. Comparing the American data to the REBGV stuff doesnt make much sense since the methods are very different.

Strataman said...

Thanks for the data Mohican. It still looks very much like a spring bounce but that should be very clear by end of September. I think however that sad to say the low interest rates and the Olympics have thrown a wrench in a parallel following of trend in other cities. I am pretty sure an equivalent low interest rate had it happened in the states at their peak would have been exactly similar. The olympics are playing heavy in the so called long term buyer heh heh. Many many people have all of there bets on the two week party.

JimTan said...

"It still looks very much like a spring bounce but that should be very clear by end of September."

Right!

The market will turn around and plunge in 6 weeks. You will be absolutely right!

Strataman said...

"The market will turn around and plunge in 6 weeks" It made a good start this last week. :-)
http://agentwill.com/weekly-stats/
Take a look at the weekly unit sales!

nero911 said...

My bold prediction - next year after the olympics we'll see a tremendous rise in inventory.

To me, almost as surprising as the sales has been the lack of inventory. I suspect with refinancing and olympics on the horizon a lot of sellers think they'll get a better price.

What I have seen recently (anecdotally) is a spike in prices, which should eventually suck the air out of sales. The old mentality seems to be back in full (RE only goes up, Vancouver is recession-proof, yada yada yada).