Thursday, July 30, 2009

Teranet House Price Index for May 2009

JULY 2009

A monthly rise in the composite index

Canadian home prices in May were down 6.9% from a year earlier, according to the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™. It was the sixth consecutive 12-month decline. The index is now down 8.9% from its peak of last August. However, its run of eight straight monthly declines ended in May with a 0.7% rise from April.

Teranet – National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

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Of the six constituent metropolitan-area indices, four showed monthly rises in May - Halifax (1.3%), Montreal (1.5%), Toronto (2.0%) and Ottawa (0.7%). For both Halifax and Montreal it was a third consecutive monthly increase. The Ottawa monthly rise came after six consecutive declines, the Toronto monthly rise after eight consecutive declines. Calgary and Vancouver continued to correct downward in May, each showing an 11th straight monthly decline.

Four of the six city indices were down from a year earlier - Vancouver (−11.8%), Calgary (−12.2%), Toronto (−6.5%) and Ottawa (−0.1%). Montreal stands apart as the only market that has yet to show a 12-month decline. Halifax has shown 12-month declines in only two months, February and March 2009.

Calgary prices have been correcting since August 2007 and are now down 15.2% from their peak of that month. The Calgary index has shown monthly declines in 18 of the 21 months posted since then, including 11 months in a row from last July through May. The 11 straight monthly declines of the Vancouver index have left it down 12.0% from peak. Toronto is 9.6% below its peak of last August. Ottawa is down 4.2% from its October peak. Halifax is almost back to its peak of last November. Montreal is already back to its peak of last September.

Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™

The historical data of the Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ is available at www.housepriceindex.ca.

Metropolitan areaIndex level
May 2009
% change m/m% change y/yFrom peakPeak Date
Calgary148.62-2.2 %-12.2 %-15.2%August 2007
Halifax121.421.3 %1.0 %-0.4%November 2008
Montreal122.601.5 %2.3 %0.0%May 2009
Ottawa113.290.7 %-0.6 %-4.2%October 2008
Toronto106.052.0 %-6.5 %-9.6%August 2008
Vancouver132.53-0.1 %-11.8 %-12.0%June 2008
National Composite120.050.7 %-6.9 %-8.2%August 2008

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; a complete description of the method is given at www.housepriceindex.ca

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in six metropolitan areas: Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver, Montreal and Halifax. The national composite index is the weighted average of the six metropolitan areas. The weights are based on aggregate value of dwellings as retrieved from the 2006 Statistics Canada Census. According to that census1, the aggregate value of occupied dwellings in the metropolitan areas covered by the indices was $1.168 trillion, or 53% of the Canadian aggregate value of $2.207 trillion.

All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005.

By:

Marc Pinsonneault
Senior Economist
Economy & Strategy Team
National Bank Financial Group

Teranet - National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for their special collaboration on this report.

1 Value of Dwelling for the Owner-occupied Non-farm, Non-reserve Private Dwellings of Canada.

1 comment:

david said...

Teranet still shows a decline for vancouver (though very small) in may while the benchmark showed that bubble 2.0 was in full swing by then.